Russia likely staged a drone attack on the Kremlin in an attempt to set the stage for wider public mobilization, the Institute for the Study of War said in a daily analysis.
Thus, the Russian authorities have recently taken measures to strengthen the capabilities of the internal air defense of the Russian Federation, including in Moscow. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that two drones could penetrate several layers of air defenses and explode, or be shot down right over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provides impressive images, well captured by the camera.
The Kremlin’s immediate, consistent and coordinated response to the incident is evidence that the attack was internally prepared. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of committing a terrorist act, and the official reaction was built on this accusation. If the drone attack had not been organized by Russia, it would have come as more of a surprise to her.
“It is likely that the official reaction of the Russian Federation would initially have been much more disorganized. Like, for example, when the Kremlin failed to give a timely and consistent informational response to military defeats, such as the fall of Balakliya and Kherson,” the Institute emphasizes.
It is noted that the rapid and consistent promotion of the official Russian narrative around the strike indicates that Russia staged this incident on the eve of Victory Day in order to present the war as existential for a domestic audience.
“The Kremlin could use the strike to justify either canceling or further limiting the May 9 celebrations. ISW has already highlighted Russia’s efforts to present the war in Ukraine as existential to domestic audiences and prepare it for broader public mobilization.” , – summed up the Institute for the Study of War.
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