Russian military analysts estimate that “The Russo-Ukrainian war is likely to heat up. But it might end this year.”
24 Feb, which is coming It will be the one-year anniversary of Russia’s “military special operations in Ukraine.” When will this conflict end?
Pavel Flegenhauer Russian military analyst of the USSR Academy of Sciences. which specializes in Russian foreign policy and defense Including the military industry group estimates that “War tends to get more intense. But it might end this year.”
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He said, “After 12 months of bloody fighting, The intensity of the battle is too high to last for long.” Felgenhauer said that “Unpredictable”
“We cannot predict everything at all. But I believe the battle will be fiercer. Everyone was talking about a Russian counteroffensive. The western military commander in Brussels is suggesting the Ukrainians push back,” Flegenhauer said.
He added that General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, had Last year it said that Ukraine could collapse in a few days, now it says that Russia suffers strategic, operational and tactical losses and that Ukraine should endeavor to defeat them.
analysts say “Ukraine is making some preparations. But it was like everyone was following Sun Tzu’s teachings. That is, war is deception. If you want to attack Have to pretend you’re not going to invade. If you are ready to attack and strong enough You have to pretend that you are not ready and not strong at all. and vice versa if you are not strong Gotta pretend you’re strong So there is a lot of misinformation right now. Each side is trying to make a surprise.”
which in the matter of creating this surprise Flegenhauer said that Ukraine did this in September last year when it was able to recapture large amounts of land from Russia. and causing the Russians to withdraw, for example in the Kherson area pressure until Russia had to mobilize reserve troops which had economic and political implications for Putin.
“Right now Russia has a very serious financial problem with a deficit. and is supported only by printing more money And there are also problems on the battlefield at the same time,” said Felgenhauer.
He added, “I don’t think war can continue in its current form for a long time. it’s like football You never know what will actually happen on the field. There is a well-known saying that ‘Russia is never as strong as you feared’ as we saw this year, but ‘Russia is never as weak as you hoped’ as well.”
meanwhile He said support for Ukraine from the west could suffer as well this year. But probably more manageable. Because the GDP of these countries is stronger than Russia. Therefore, Western nations are likely to be more prepared for protracted wars.
However, Felgenhauer believes that “The war should be over by this year.”
“Both sides had heavy losses. We’re talking about massive fatalities. And both the Russians and the Ukrainians were ready to continue the war. But I don’t think this will last forever,” he said.
The analyst added that Negotiation ends when one side “surrenders” first, and only after one side begins to gain a clear victory on the battlefield.
“They tried to negotiate … But the demands of Russia and Ukraine seemed to be mutually exclusive … Ukraine said they wanted more. And Russia needs more as well … Someone must first give what the other wants. And the most likely to happen will be on the battlefield,” Flegenhauer said.
He said, “If one side starts to gain a clear victory on the battlefield. That would be decisive. Military victories can lead the other to a real crisis. and may even change the regime of the other party.”
compiled from Al Jazeera
Image from AFP