“It will not be a deconfinement”: the three scenarios studied by the government

“It will not be a deconfinement, we must kill this word. The team of the President of the Republic has already thought a lot about his next televised intervention. During this speech, next week, but whose exact date has not yet been set, Emmanuel Macron will not utter the word “deconfinement”.

In any case, this is what his closest collaborators will advise him. Because the stake will be, like the last time, clarity. Those close to the president want at all costs to avoid scrambled or complicated messages. The health situation is improving, but the figures for the epidemic remain very high, so if any relaxations have to be announced, it will not however be necessary to give the feeling that we are reopening the country and that the second wave is behind us, quite simply because it is not. The Head of State will therefore speak rather, at the option, either “of an adjustment of the rules in force” or “of a relaxation” or even “of a return to a certain normality”.

VIDEO. Gabriel Attal: France is still “far from deconfinement”

A defense council was held this Tuesday morning at the Elysee Palace to take stock of the health situation. In addition to Prime Minister Jean Castex, it brought together 14 members of the government. “The president welcomed the fact that the sacrifices of the French are starting to pay off,” said one of the participants. But he insisted that just because there’s a thrill doesn’t mean normal life needs to resume. We must avoid the stop-and-go and prepare for anything, even the worst. “

Reducing constraints, but on a case-by-case basis

Concretely three scenarios are on the table. Case number 1, the status quo. That is, no modification of the re-containment rules in force. This scenario is not the one that holds the rope since the figures of the epidemic are going in the right direction. Case number 2, a hardening of the current rules. This is the least likely since it would take the epidemic to flare up again by next week. Case number 3, and this is the one that is most seriously considered: a gradual reduction in constraints on a case-by-case basis.

The defense council did not go into the details of these possible arrangements because many consultations are taking place these days and, potentially, until the beginning of next week. “Bilateral” discussions between the different economic sectors and their line ministers. For example, small traders talk with Bruno Le Maire, entertainment professionals with Roselyne Bachelot, etc. “We want to co-construct the possible reductions with the sectors, explains the Elysee, and in the end it is the president who will decide. »Important precision, since this« co-construction »looks much more like tough negotiations« where everyone asks for their exception ».

In addition to the question of shops, several other subjects were raised this Wednesday morning during the defense council. Like driving schools (closed while exams continue), hotel structures which have several establishments (holding companies) or the fate of “permittents” (these workers who alternate short contracts and periods of inactivity) . The certificates were also the subject of collective reflection. They should be maintained, but the government is considering changing them to make them less restrictive. Regarding the possible exit times, the government plans to use again or maintain the curfew.

Confining vulnerable people, unacceptable

Finally the President of the Republic was once again very clear: no question of imagining a confinement of our only elders or “vulnerable people”. Ethically unacceptable in the eyes of the Head of State and “inapplicable” according to the Elysee, because “we are not going to put a police officer behind every French person”. The sensitive subject of Christmas was also invited into the discussion. “One thing is certain: we will not tell the French to eat individual pieces of turkey in trays, talking to their families by videoconference”, summarizes a minister, rather optimistic on the subject.

On the good news side, the forthcoming appointment of a “Mr or Mrs vaccine” is being studied to prepare all the logistics and communication during the vaccination phase as soon as the products are approved and available. It is Wednesday that the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer must communicate its study results to the European health authorities.

Finally, this question: when exactly the President of the Republic will announce his arbitrations to the French. Well it depends! If he had to decide to authorize reductions for Black Friday, so Friday November 27 (Bruno Le Maire asked distributors to “postpone this promotional operation”, but nothing says that he will be listened to), then he could s ‘express from Monday or Tuesday to give traders time to organize themselves. If, on the contrary, he decided that no rule would change by December 1 or later, then he would rather speak at the end of next week, after the next defense council scheduled for next Wednesday.

As we can see, for nearly ten months now, it is a virus that has dictated the pace of life in the country. And the presidential agenda is no exception.

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