the president of USA, Joe Bidenadmitted on Tuesday the possibility of a “slight” recession after the economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund –IMF-, amid rising inflation and uncertainty after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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“I don’t think there’s a recessionBiden told CNN. “If there is, it will be a very light recession. That is, we will go down slightly.”
The IMF on Tuesday cut its US growth forecast for 2022 to 1.6 percent and kept it at 1 percent for 2023. It cut its forecast for global growth in 2023 and warned of a worsening outlook for the World economyin a fairly gray report prepared by the entity.
“Every six months they say this,” Biden said of the recession warnings. “So much has been accomplished that the idea that there is something, there is an automaticity in a recession, and it just isn’t, it just isn’t there,” he pointed out.
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What is in check global growth?
The global economy is a little closer to recession, in which several developed countries will fall in 2023, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, worried about inflation and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
The IMF maintained the growth forecast for 2022 at 3.2%, a percentage that has already changed three times this year, but lowered its expectations for 2023 for the fourth timenow 2.7% (0.2 percentage points less than forecast in July).
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“There is a 25% chance that global growth will fall below 2% next year, a historically low low that has only been seen five times since 1970 in the world, especially during the oil shock or the financial crisis. of 2008,” the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchasa Washington.
“And there’s a 10 to 15% chance that global growth will be less than 1%, or GDP per capita will stagnate, which would mean things are really bad,” he added.
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The three global locomotives –United States, China and Europe– are slowing down, especially due to the effect of persistent inflation that is affecting developed economies and even more so in emerging and developing countries, and which should reach 8.8% on average worldwide this year (+ 0.5 percentage points compared to July forecasts).
AFP