In terms of numbers, it is difficult for any Lebanese party to obtain a parliamentary majority. This inevitably loses him a large part of his dominance.
What happened on May 15 is closer to a legislative miracle that surprised and confused both the inside and the outside, and the confusion here due to the inability to explain the election results politically in the short and medium term, which will directly reflect on all the upcoming constitutional elections, which are now threatened with disruption and threaten Lebanon with two crises (power and system).
In sum, the results of the recent legislative elections forced the Lebanese political and cultural elites to read the scene with great caution, and to sense the dangers from attempts by the hegemonic powers to refuse to recognize the political results of the elections, which brings back to memory the Lebanese division on the eve of the civil war between those who believed that through arms they obtain their rights in exchange for Whoever thought that through arms he also protects his privileges.
This equation, which dates back to the 1975 stage, is now matched by a similar approach in its broad titles, different in its details, imposed by the results of the last elections in May 2022, as there is a party that denies numbers, relies on weights and considers its weapons a privilege, compared to a new political class that considers reforming the system with both sides. The political and economic privileges are among its privileges. The former, after the elections, links its presence with its allies with weapons. As for the latter, it is a non-allied party that refuses to recognize the privileges of the former and tends to confront it, but of course not under the slogan of arms versus arms, and this is what the Lebanese writer Hazem Saghieh pointed out in his last article. In the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, where he said: “It does not mean calling for committing a suicidal folly, like confronting arms with weapons.
However, peaceful naivety should not be the only alternative to suicidal folly.
Hezbollah refuses to consider its loss of the majority as a regression in its role somewhat linked to weapons, which returned to circulation at a moment closer to the Soviet, as the gigantic Soviet missile arsenal was unable to provide bread to the citizens of the Soviet Union in 1989, and did not prevent its fall in 1991. This similarity, of course, with a big difference in sizes, but it is a simple example of the dangers that Lebanon will face in the next few days, especially as the party is arrogant and trying to jump above the results, and it hides its confusion by calling for discussion of living issues, but with the threat that it is capable of disrupting and clashing if necessary. However, the party, which was previously experienced in resorting to security and military options in several entitlements, is most likely in this crisis, especially in its economic dimension, compelled to review its accounts before entering into an uncalculated adventure.
In practice, the results of the parliamentary elections imposed confusion at all levels, and reinforced fears of a clash between the forces of the system and the winning new reform group, which rejects the logic of settlements but has a limited ability to disrupt them, which means that Lebanon is on the verge of a vacuum in the two legislative authorities (since it is difficult to predict the possibility The convening of the parliament session and the election of Nabih Berri as speaker of parliament), and the executive (as it is unlikely that the blocs will reach consensus on choosing a prime minister) and this will inevitably affect the next October on the election of a president.
Accordingly, the confusing results of the elections, which produced political confusion, are as much as they constitute a foundational opportunity for the movement for change, but they may also cause a complete political blockage that requires unconventional factors that the Lebanese have become accustomed to whenever they are unable to solve their problems through dialogue, so that God may protect what is left for the Lebanese and what is left of Lebanon.