“Lebanese Political Analysis: The Search for a Centrist President and the Role of Undecided Voters”

2023-05-30 09:48:42

“Lebanese Debate”

It is clear that there is no tendency towards a settlement formula that would lead to the nomination of a centrist figure for the presidency, after it became clear that confrontation was inevitable between the candidates in the upcoming twelfth election session.

Accordingly, the census or “pountage” processes have been launched, and followed a path that simulates the distribution of votes based on recent political developments, which indicate new parliamentary alignments that would cast a shadow over the electoral scene in Nejmeh Square.

In this context, the writer and political analyst Georges Shaheen points out that in every count that the electoral machines, whether those seeking to market Suleiman Franjieh’s candidacy, or who will compete with him in the next confrontation, end up with the logic of searching for the list of those who are undecided in the presidential elections.

Analyst Shaheen reveals to the “Lebanon Debate” that it was remarkable in the recent statistics that accompanied Franjieh’s candidacy and the project to name Jihad Azour, that the list of hesitants appeared more clearly than before, and the evidence is that all the statistics that were conducted, one of which was given by Jihad Azour, if the settlement was consensually based on The level of the opposition and the “Free Patriotic Movement” ranged between 57 and 58 votes, and none of the statistics succeeded in raising Franjieh’s votes to more than 54 votes, which led to the launch of the list of those reluctant or abstaining from entering the confrontation if the candidacy of Franjieh and Azour was counted as challenging candidates. .

Regarding the list of hesitants, Shaheen explains that at the top of this list is the new bloc that included the “National Moderation” bloc, which is preparing to announce a broader bloc after four deputies joined it, in addition to 4 other deputies from the changeists, while doubts will remain surrounding the behavior of the “Democratic Gathering” deputies. Which includes 8 deputies, as some of them talk about a commitment made by Walid Jumblatt before his resignation from the presidency of the Progressive Socialist Party, that he will be with any candidate agreed upon by the Christian forces, so how if there is agreement between the “Lebanese Forces” and the “Free Patriotic Movement” and the Phalangists, Will the “Democratic Meeting” be neutral?

Regarding the position of the “National Movement”, Shaheen believes that the matter is a matter of discussion with the “National Movement”, with the majority of the bloc’s members talking about joining this Christian consensus.

Thus, Shaheen confirms, that the mass of the undecided has become clearer in form, and this is a matter that has consequences at the level of the presidential election, and he confirms the existence of a scenario that will lead in the end to the exclusion of challenge candidates, which led to a shocking, strong and uncalculated reaction by the “Shiite duo” by refusing to nominate Jihad. Azour before it was finally agreed upon, and as it was drawn according to more than one understanding, one of which led to the “National Movement” announcing its support for Azour’s jihad, to be followed by the other opposition after the movement’s margin expanded in front of it, and the “Lebanese Forces” joined the list of the opposition that includes The Lebanese Kataeb, the “Renewal” movement, a large number of MPs and independents, and the “Sanad” party.

As for talking about the climate of mistrust between the opposition on the one hand, and the “National Movement” on the other hand, and the possibility of a tendency for surprises to occur in the election session, Shaheen confirms that although the scope for skepticism is wide at this level, and that opposition representatives consider that The translation of the understanding in the ballot box is the one that will be decided, but it is foolish to believe that there are those who practiced the “Khanfshari” scenarios, because the understanding that will be concluded will be binding and subject to international scrutiny, and it will not be acceptable to prejudice or violate it during the session, especially since the election It will not happen from the first session, as it will be difficult for any candidate to secure 86 votes to win, while in the second session, the obstruction weapon will belong to both parties.

#list #undecided #expanding.. #stupidity #Khanfsharia #scenario

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