Lebanon’s economy after the elections… Hopes for a breakthrough and challenges in general

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This optimism provides positive messages about the possibility of recovery Lebanon international trust, The Monetary Fund Asking for fundamental reforms in the economy, and even in politics, as an acceptable prelude to negotiating an exit from the crisis.

Questions are raised in Lebanon about the challenges that will be faced Parliament The new, while the country is groaning under the weight of unprecedented crises.

Economists in Lebanon believe that "The new faces will have a positive impact in the event that efforts are organized and programs are defined, and this is not easy with the existing obstacles and political conflict that hinders solutions.".

Economist Jassem Ajaqa says to "Sky News Arabia"the country "It will face a certain disaster if it does not go towards reforms approved by Parliament".

He adds: "There is a harsh period waiting for the Lebanese, due to the lack of hard currency to buy wheat, fuel, medicine and necessary requirements from abroad".

Ajaga is considered that "Holding the elections is a glimmer of hope, but a question mark remains about the ability of this council to carry out the required reforms".

He adds: "Several scenarios are put forward, some of them related to the ability of the new parliament to implement, or the adoption of fundamental reforms that formed earlier a division between the traditional forces.".

investment bet

Ajaga continues: "There is a challenge in terms of the general trend with regard to the investments that constitute salvation for Lebanon, because they secure economic growth and absorb losses, knowing that 45 percent of these investments come directly from the Arab Gulf states, so we have to look forward to dealing with the political aspect of the file in Parliament, Especially since the role of the Gulf states is essential to contribute to the solution".

The economist expects a rise in the dollar exchange rate, but he wondered whether "The government will meet international demands and demand from the Banque du Liban not to pump the dollar into the market, and this means stopping work on Circular No. 161 issued by the Central Bank, which secures for the citizen and for consumption the dollar subsidized at the price of the official (exchange) platform".

He continues: "At that time, the citizen will not be able to face the flow of the dollar on the black market, and its price will rise, and this is reflected in the purchasing power of the citizen, because 85 percent of the citizen’s consumption is imported from abroad.".

Ajaga sealed: "If we witness seriousness from the Parliament and the government in terms of addressing the crisis, we can see the Central Bank continuing to pump subsidized dollars, pending agreement with the IMF to reach the stage of implementing reforms.".

A difficult stage is on the horizon

In the opinion of journalist and analyst in economic affairs, Munir Younes, "The situation is ambiguous and difficult, while an additional wave of the cost of living is looming before the Lebanese people".

Yunus says in an interview with the site "Sky News Arabia"The lack of a ruling majority in the new parliament makes the legislative process difficult"The country is going through a delicate stage, and the International Monetary Fund is requesting a number of radical reforms in the banking sector, controlling withdrawals and money transfers, banking secrecy, and budgeting.".

He adds: "The absence of a majority in the parliament will also make it difficult to vote on the required legislation, because there are new groups that have entered Parliament and are opposing the ruling system, and this is the first challenge related to the high exchange rate of the dollar.".

Yunus continues: "The Central Bank will only disburse the reserve through a law, and it is expected that Parliament will not approve the passing of such a law".

He continues: "It has also become difficult to implement the paper of the International Monetary Fund that the government agreed with the international institution, and there are long months of stagnation, with what this means from the economic and financial conditions in connection with the price of the dollar and the scarcity of basic materials such as wheat, with the possibility of the bank accepting to reduce support for some materials like fuel".

Yunus concludes: "The situation is difficult and we will witness an additional wave of high prices. How will the citizen face that if the government raises the customs dollar from the previous level to a new, higher price? And if the budget is not approved, there is a problem in satisfying people with a few increases and transportation allowances, and the scene will remain difficult until the presidential elections are held next fall.".

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This optimism provides positive messages about the possibility of recovery Lebanon international trust, The Monetary Fund Asking for fundamental reforms in the economy, and even in politics, as an acceptable prelude to negotiating an exit from the crisis.

Questions are raised in Lebanon about the challenges that will be faced Parliament The new, while the country is groaning under the weight of unprecedented crises.

Economists in Lebanon believe that “the new faces will have a positive impact in the event of organizing efforts and defining programs, and this is not easy with the existing obstacles and the political conflict that hinders solutions.”

The economic expert, Jassem Ajaqa, told “Sky News Arabia” that the country “will be facing a certain disaster if it does not go towards reforms approved by Parliament.”

He added, “There is a harsh period awaiting the Lebanese, due to the lack of hard currency to buy wheat, fuel, medicine and necessary requirements from abroad.”

Agaga considers that “the holding of the elections is a glimmer of hope, but a question mark remains about the ability of this council to carry out the required reforms.”

He added, “There are several scenarios on the table, some of which are related to the ability of the new parliament to implement, or the adoption of fundamental reforms that formed earlier a division between the traditional forces.”

investment bet

Ajaqa continues: “There is a challenge in terms of the general trend with regard to investments that constitute salvation for Lebanon, because they secure economic growth and absorb losses, knowing that 45 percent of these investments come directly from the Arab Gulf countries, so we have to wait for the political aspect of the file to be dealt with. In Parliament, especially since the role of the Gulf states is essential to contribute to the solution.”

The economic expert expects an increase in the dollar exchange rate, but he wondered whether “the government will meet international demands and demand the Bank of Lebanon not to pump the dollar into the market, and this means stopping work on circular No. 161 issued by the Central Bank that secures for the citizen and for consumption the dollar subsidized at the price of the (exchange) platform. ) official.

He continues, “At that time, the citizen will not be able to face the runaway dollar on the black market, and its price will rise, and this will be reflected on the citizen’s purchasing power, because 85 percent of the citizen’s consumption is imported from abroad.”

Agaqa concludes: “If we witness seriousness from the Parliament and the government in terms of addressing the crisis, we could see the Central Bank continuing to pump subsidized dollars, pending agreement with the IMF to reach the stage of implementing reforms.”

A difficult stage is on the horizon

Journalist and analyst in economic affairs, Mounir Younes, believes that “the situation is ambiguous and difficult, while the Lebanese are facing an additional wave of cost of living.”

In an interview with “Sky News Arabia”, Younes says that the absence of a ruling majority in the new parliament makes the legislative process difficult, as “the country is going through a delicate stage, and the International Monetary Fund is requesting a number of radical reforms in the banking sector and by controlling withdrawals and financial transfers, and by banking secrecy and budgeting.” “.

He added, “The absence of a majority in the parliament will also make it difficult to vote on the required legislation, because there are new groups that entered Parliament and are opposing the ruling system, and this is the first challenge related to the rise in the dollar exchange rate.”

Yunus continues: “The Central Bank will only disburse the reserve through a law, and it is expected that this parliament will not approve the adoption of such a law.”

And he continues: “It has also become difficult to implement the IMF paper that the government agreed upon with the international institution, and there are long months of stagnation, with what this means is a decline in the economic and financial conditions in connection with the price of the dollar and the scarcity of basic materials such as wheat, with the possibility of the bank accepting easing subsidies. on some substances, such as fuels.

Yunus concludes by saying: “The situation is difficult and we will witness an additional wave of prices. How will the citizen face that if the government raises the customs dollar from the previous level to a new, higher price? And if the budget is not approved, there is a problem in satisfying people with a few increases and transportation allowances, and the scene will remain difficult until the elections are held. presidential elections next fall.

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