The Hong Kong property market has entered a stage of vacuum decline. To be honest, the transaction price has fallen, but the transaction volume is not high, which reflects that the market has not surrendered, and the price and volume have both fallen. The real estate agent is the first to bear the brunt. The pool is stagnant, and the income will be greatly reduced.
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How to buy a house in a recession
At present, the permanent resident population in Hong Kong has declined, and the working population has dropped significantly. The more serious it is, the younger you are, the faster the population will be lost. This is a factor that will make it difficult for property prices to rise for many years. Another factor is economic development. When everyone has money, there will naturally be a demand to buy a property. If the economy is in a downturn, how can there be money to buy a property. In the short term, the tightness of the epidemic prevention policy will affect the economic prosperity and also directly affect the property market. Of course, interest is another factor, which directly affects the buyer’s desire. Although the increase in the cost of housing supply is still within the scope of the stress test, but The psychology of new buyers will take a hit, resulting in the current low volume.
Looking forward to the future, I believe that the epidemic prevention policy may be relaxed in the short term, which will bring a short-term stimulus, but there will be a rebound only after the interest rate trend begins to turn. Another possibility is that the government withdraws the previous policy to cool the property market , but even if it is recovered, it is unknown how many people will be willing to go overseas to buy properties with the current trend of the RMB. Another factor is that the renminbi is under the pressure of blinking. Even if you want to come out of Hong Kong, it is still unknown whether it will pass the foreign exchange administration.
Hong Kong’s property prices will go down is a certainty. The variable is whether there will be policy adjustments. As the policy address is approaching, we will see if it will help speed up the support for the property market. Otherwise, if it continues to fall, Hong Kong’s economy and people’s livelihood will only get worse and worse. .
Lu Zhiwei
This column is published every Friday