The government is actively considering the implementation of the “0+7” measures for entry quarantine and medical surveillance. Those who want to learn from the West think it is still too slow, and those who oppose the liberal anti-epidemic think it is a disguised surrender.
If you stretch a little to predict, after three years, the new crown virus is likely to become influenza. Due to the large increase in the proportion of people who are vaccinated and naturally infected, the infection or fatality rate with symptoms should decrease accordingly. This is the future scenario. The question is how to transition to the future with the least cost, especially the cost of human life, and in the process, we hope to minimize the cost of economic and social opportunity.
Lying flat is recommended in one step, and it will inevitably cost a higher human life.
On the contrary, it will pay too much economic and social cost if it is not open at all. I believe that even the mainland will not be completely closed for a long time, but will try to find a good time and find the right way to gradually open up.
The Hong Kong SAR government is considering the “0+7” measures in order to speed up the pace of opening up while the risks are controllable. Let’s think about what the risks are.
1) The implementation of the “0+7” measures means that there is no chance of customs clearance with the mainland. Simple response, indeed. The question is, can customs clearance with the mainland be possible without implementing the “0+7” measures? With the rapid spread of Omicron 2.5, Hong Kong has no ability to clear it, and it is just an illusion to be able to clear customs with the mainland without clearing it. We can only hope that the mainland will also slowly open to the outside world in response to the epidemic, and simultaneously open to Hong Kong. Since it is impossible to clear customs with the mainland without implementing the “0+7” measures, there is no additional cost.
2) Increase the risk of imported epidemics. In all fairness, this risk is not high at present, because Hong Kong has thousands of confirmed cases every day, and the society has already been flooded with transmission chains. The current situation is very different from the situation that Cathay Pacific brought in the virus at the end of last year, because the infection in the community was extremely low at that time, and the imported virus became the source of the spread. Now that the local epidemic has already become a pandemic, and the daily imported cases only account for 2%, the implementation of the “0+7” measures will not hinder the overall situation of the fight against the epidemic even if the number of imported cases increases.
The real impact is that when new variants of viruses other than Omicron start to spread in other places, the input of external defense will become important.
3) The seven-day medical surveillance measures are out of control. Since many experts say that “the new crown is like the flu”, and many foreign countries and regions have been completely unguarded, it is inevitable that there will be people returning to Hong Kong from other places, who will see the seven-day medical surveillance as nothing.
In order to control this risk, the government should not only strengthen publicity and remind those conducting medical surveillance not to enter designated places such as restaurants, but also strictly enforce the law against violators and strengthen prosecution. ” will be severely punished.
The SAR government’s relaxation of entry measures is not equivalent to accepting the “end of the epidemic” theory. Let’s take a look at the situation in the United States. In a recent interview with CBS, U.S. President Biden said that the epidemic in the United States is “over”, saying “if you pay attention, no one is wearing a mask. Everyone looks very good, so I think the situation is changing. This is a A perfect example”.
But even Fauci, the U.S. anti-epidemic authority and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, objected to this “perfect example” in Biden’s mouth. Fauci said the current coronavirus death rate in the United States “remains unacceptably high.” The U.S. death rate from Covid-19 is 1.1 percent, the highest among the seven industrialized nations. Fauci also warned that re-mutations of the new coronavirus could still emerge, especially in the coming winter.
At the same time, some Americans protested outside the White House in Washington, holding up signs against Biden’s “end of the epidemic in the United States.” This group of protesters is a group of people who have the sequelae of the “long new crown”.
Experts in Hong Kong are believed to be no more authoritative than Fauci. Fauci is also afraid that new variants will appear. He believes that the epidemic is not over, and we should not be overly optimistic.
It is hoped that the SAR government will act prudently while further opening up, minimize the side effects of the new measures and minimize loopholes.
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Lu Yongxiong