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Emmanuel Macron led the results of the first round of the French presidential elections on Sunday, by a few percentage points from his far-right rival Marine Le Pen, and the two will meet in the second round on April 24, the outcome of which seems inconclusive.
With more than 90 percent of the votes counted in the first round, expectations showed that Macron won from 28 to 29 percent, compared to between 22 and 24 percent for Le Pen. The two finalists immediately called for two rallies, Macron thanked the losing candidates for calling to block the far-right candidate, while Le Pen urged “all those who did not vote” for the outgoing president to “join” her.
Macron expressed his readiness to create a new, inclusive structure, away from “disagreements”, to be a “great political movement of unity and action”. To the chants of “Macron is president,” about a thousand of his supporters waved French and European flags on Sunday evening, and expressed their joy, chanting the slogan “a year, two years, and five more years.” Radical leftist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon was close to running for the second round, with nearly 21 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the candidates of the traditional Socialist and Republican parties were on their way to a humiliating defeat and unprecedented low results. Macron announced on Sunday evening that he will launch his election campaign Monday in northern France, while Le Pen is due to meet her campaign team before resuming grassroots efforts in small towns and the French countryside later next week.
‘Choice of society’
The first polls conducted on Sunday evening about voting intentions in the second round showed a narrow preference for Macron, with 51 percent of the vote, according to the Ifop-Vedosial poll, and 54 percent according to the Ipsos poll, which is much lower than what he received in 2017 (66 percent). After the results were announced, Le Pen said that “what will be decided on April 24 will be a choice for society and civilization,” pledging in particular to “restore the sovereignty of France.”
Macron stressed to his supporters at his campaign headquarters that “nothing has been decided yet” in the elections, noting that “the debate that we will have for 15 days will be decisive for our country and Europe.” Marine Le Pen defended her vision of “bringing the French people together around social justice and protection, which are guaranteed by a fraternal framework around the idea of a nation that spans a thousand years”, saying that this is the opposite of “the division, injustice and chaos imposed by Emmanuel Macron for the benefit of a few.”
As for the outgoing president, he said that he wanted “France to be part of a strong Europe, continuing to form alliances with the major democracies to defend itself, not France, which is leaving Europe to be its only allies, the international coalition of populists and xenophobes,” referring to Le Pen, who enjoys good relations, for example. With populist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
“Voice Hunting”
Abstentions will be one of two major issues in the second round, in addition to getting the votes of the voters of the defeated candidates in the first round. Several defeated candidates called for a block on Le Pen, including Melenchon, who urged his supporters on Sunday night to “not give a single vote to Marine Le Pen” in the second round on April 24.
Communists, socialists and the waist issued similar calls, as did traditional right-wing candidate Valerie Pecres. However, the impact of those calls remains uncertain given that Emmanuel Macron’s personality is particularly divisive among some left-wing voters. And the leader of the Green Party, Sandrine Russo, said that the outgoing president must “convince left-wing voters and environmentalists one by one”, otherwise he “will not succeed”.
It seems that Le Pen has a relatively low vote reserve in the second round, but it can count on the support of the other far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, who said after receiving about 7 percent of the votes in the first round, “I will not deceive my opponent,” calling on his supporters to “vote for Marine Le Pen.” Sovereign candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan also called for a vote for Le Pen after receiving about 2 percent of the vote.
Le Pen’s victory could have important international repercussions, given her anti-European stances and her desire, for example, to withdraw France from the integrated leadership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Her victory will set a double precedent, as France has never been ruled by a woman, and the far right has never ruled the country. In this regard, political expert Pascal Perino said on the “Arte” website that “in 2017, Marine Le Pen did not have a large reserve, but now she can go much further. Macron will have to fish out votes from Jean-Luc Mélenchon.” Le Pen, a leader in the National Rally, said on France 2 television that “new elections have begun.”
televised debate
France’s traditional televised debate between the two elections will be a crucial stop in the two-week campaign, starting April 20. In 2017, the Macron phenomenon dominated the scene and surprised everyone, but this time the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was the first to lead the far-right to the second round of the presidential elections in 2002, seems more prepared. Marine Le Pen campaigned on the ground from the start, focusing on the purchasing power of voters’ main concern, while Emmanuel Macron, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and perhaps too confident in the polls, did not participate much in the first-round campaign.