Dhe achievements of the Ukrainian army surprised many people in the past week. Is this really the turning point in the Ukraine war, or just a short-term success story? Should further arms shipments be initiated to bolster the trend?
Sandra Maischberger discussed this on Tuesday evening with the outgoing Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk. Also invited to the studio were military expert Carlo Masala, actor Walter Sittler, journalist Hannah Bethke and ARD correspondent Stephan Stuchlik.
“It is a tremendous psychological blow to the Putin regime”
At the beginning, Walter Sittler looked to the Ukraine with hope, but not without formulating demands: “We must now decide whether we will help them or let them down. I think we have an obligation to help them so that Ukraine gets its territories back.” This is the only way sustainable peace negotiations are possible.
Hannah Bethke curbed optimism. “It’s still too early to speak of a turning point,” she told Maischberger. “It is not yet certain that this will always continue like this.” Stephan Stuchlik agreed with her, but spoke of an “enormous psychological blow against the Putin regime”, which had always relied on the ideology of strength and now in strong ones need for explanation.
When asked about supplying weapons, Sittler tried his hand at being a military expert, demanding “as many weapons, as quickly as possible, to defend the values we share.” There was plenty of applause from the studio audience. Bethke countered and criticized the one-dimensional debate. “You have to be automatically in favor of arms deliveries. If you differentiate, you are quickly considered to understand Putin,” she complained. She still sees the danger of escalation and that the West could become a war party. “The risk must at least be named.”
“It’s a terrific military success that we saw over the weekend”
Andriy Melnyk was combative in the subsequent conversation with Maischberger and Carlo Masala. “Is this the turning point?” the hostess asked him. “Yes, we have taken the initiative and want to seize the moment. The army has shown that it can liberate an area the size of Saarland, Luxembourg and Berlin combined within a few days.”
But like Bethke before, Masala also warned against hasty reports of victory. “No, it’s not a turning point. It could be one. It’s a terrific military success that we saw over the weekend.” The next few weeks would decide whether the trend was confirmed. That essentially depends on whether the Russians can build a new line of defense.”
“Politically, of course, we are indirectly at war because we are helping a country to defend itself.”
“We want to liberate as many areas as possible before winter and hope that we can outwit the Russians as well as we have in the past few days,” said Melnyk, emphasizing the increasing support from Ukraine’s allies. In addition to arms deliveries, the USA in particular also contributed to the recent successes through satellite images.
“We don’t want to become a party to the war, but shouldn’t it be said that the USA has long been a party to the war?” Maischberger wanted to know from Masala. “We support Ukraine, that is legitimate under international law. Politically, of course, we are indirectly a party to the war because we are helping a country to defend itself,” Masala clarified. He was annoyed by the “talk of becoming a war party”. This is only formally fulfilled when armed soldiers are sent to Ukraine.
As a counter-reaction from Russia, both Masala and Melnyk assessed the use of tactical nuclear weapons as rather low, since the political price for this is very high. Russia is at risk of being isolated from China and India as well, Masala said. “Putin knows the German soul and unfortunately can play well with it,” Melnyk suspected. “He relies on intimidation. This fear is his greatest weapon because German politics has also failed in recent years and decades.”
“Without arms deliveries, Ukraine would not be where it is today”
The two also agreed on the subject of arms deliveries. “Without arms deliveries, Ukraine would not be where it is today. Without them, there would no longer be a sovereign Ukraine today, there would certainly be more Buchas, more women who were raped and more dead Ukrainians,” says Masala, assessing the situation. “Negotiations will be conducted on the basis of how the war is ended.” That is why it is so important to improve Ukraine’s options.
When asked by Maischberger about his dismissal as Ukrainian ambassador, the often controversial Melnyk ended up being forgiving and unusually self-critical. “You have to take responsibility for your mistakes,” he said. “Germany, no matter how critical you are of the government, is our most important ally in Europe. When it comes to the EU and NATO, we have to win over the Germans. I wish my successor that he does it better than I do.”
Melnyk described the fact that he made the wrong choice of tone several times during his tenure as “cries for help”. “If someone is drowning, they are not polite, you have to shout and be louder than usual. I hope that the Germans will be lenient when I’m gone.”