[The Epoch Times, January 08, 2023]Due to insufficient consumer demand, there is a surplus of raw milk in China.Hebei、Inner Mongolia、ShandongThe phenomenon of “dumping milk and killing cows” has appeared in many areas. Many industry insiders predict that the price of raw milk may continue its downward trend in 2023.
A man in Suzhou City, Anhui Province has been raised for more than 30 yearsthe cowofdairy farmerLao Li told Beijing Business Daily, “Onethe cowThe daily fodder fee is about 80 yuan. No one collects the milk. A pasture with dozens of cows can lose hundreds of thousands of yuan a month. With the hope of not seeing a good market in the short term, the cows can only be killed to sell beef. Stop loss in time. “
At present, the northern regions with large dairy farming scale and sufficient supply, such asHebei、Inner Mongolia、ShandongThe phenomenon of “dumping milk and killing cows” has begun in other places.
The supply continues to increase, but the lack of consumer demand leads to a temporary surplus of raw milk. According to the Financial Associated Press, by the end of 2022, the price of raw milk has dropped by 6% from the high point two years ago. At present, most small and medium-sized ranches are already overwhelmed by the background of high costs and weak demand. It is expected that the price of raw milk will continue to decline in 2023, and the losses of ranches may further expand.
“Beijing Business Daily” reported, “Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other places in the northern region have already begun to experience the phenomenon of ‘dumping milk and killing cows’ in 2015.”dairy farmerLao Li said that there are too many dairy cows and milk on the breeding side, and the price of 3.85 yuan/kg can’t make much money, even if the downstream demand can’t keep up.
Lao Li started raising dairy cows in 1984, and started working as a dairy cow distributor in 2020. He traveled all over the country to purchase dairy cows and sold them to different channels according to their appearance.
Lao Li said, “I have a ranch client in Shanghai. There is no company to collect milk. Now I am paying hundreds of thousands of yuan a month. I can’t see the hope of the market improving in the short term. I have already sold less than half of the cows. I can only say that You don’t have to lose money if you sell the cows, but selling dairy cows as beef cattle doesn’t make up for the loss.”
Regarding the situation in the northern market mentioned by Lao Li, Zhang Mingyan, head of Inner Mongolia Dewang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd., said that Dewang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry mainly sells dairy cows to all parts of the country. More than 1,000 dairy cows produce milk, but due to the decline in the market, nearly half of the dairy cows have been converted into beef cattle for fattening in the past six months, but the market for beef cattle and milk is not good, and almost no cows and milk are harvested. “
The double festival holiday did not effectively boost the demand for raw milk. According to the Financial Associated Press, as of December 21, the price of fresh milk in 10 main producing areas including Inner Mongolia and Hebei was 4.12 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.
The main reason for the continuous decline in the price of raw milk is that the weak demand has led to a periodic oversupply.
Looking ahead, many industry insiders predict that the price of raw milk may continue its downward trend in 2023. Dairy industry expert Song Liang said: “Domestic raw milk is determined by the relationship between supply and demand of mid-to-high-end dairy products. The current decline in overall demand for mid-to-high-end dairy products will inevitably lead to a decline in the price of raw milk. Now many animal husbandry companies are already subsidized farming. Next year, raw milk from small and medium-sized ranches will The purchase volume will continue to decrease, and the price of raw milk is expected to fall below 3.8 yuan/kg.”
Editor in charge: Li Bing #