Free agent pitching market: Early deals offer insights into winter’s trajectory
As the baseball industry and several massive fan bases eagerly wait to find out which team will sign superstar outfielder Juan Soto, there has already been significant movement in another part of the free-agent market: starting pitching. This dynamic was also in play a year ago, when Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Luis Severino all signed before December’s winter meetings, but last winter saw two of the market’s top starters, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, have their free agencies stretch all the way to March. We’re a long way from knowing which, if any, of this year’s top free-agent arms will remain unsigned as spring training camps open, but the early movement suggests a steady stream of rotation additions could be on deck in the coming weeks.
Excluding Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki — whose market is entirely different due to international amateur bonus rules — Yahoo Sports’ Top 50 free agent list featured 19 starting pitchers. Five of them — Blake Snell (No. 6), Yusei Kikuchi (No. 17), Nick Martinez (No. 19), Matthew Boyd (No. 35) and Frankie Montas (No. 50) — have already inked new deals.
In addition, right-hander Michael Wacha, who was set to be a free agent and would’ve ranked in the middle portion of our list, agreed to a three-year, $51 million extension with Kansas City.
What have we learned in free agency so far?
So what can we glean from this initial batch of starting pitching additions? The early days of the offseason are ripe with speculation, but now we have some data points to work with. There are two primary things to note with these first few contracts: 1) the size and length of the deals relative to industry projections and expectations, and 2) which teams have already jumped at the chance to improve their pitching staffs and, by extension, which teams in need of rotation help still have shopping to do.
Let’s begin with the money. The winter started with Wacha’s extension to stay with the Royals and the 34-year-old Martinez accepting the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer from Cincinnati. Wacha’s deal made perfect sense, considering his reported comfort with the club and the $17 million average annual value was commensurate with that of a mid-rotation starter with a high floor. Perhaps Martinez could’ve commanded a larger total guarantee on a multi-year pact, but he opted to stay in Cincinnati, where he just had a fantastic year as a swingman, for a far larger AAV than he would’ve received otherwise. Neither of those two deals was especially surprising.
Next came Kikuchi, reeled in by the ultra-active Angels with a three-year, $63 million deal. Kikuchi hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Wacha over the past few seasons, but he has been durable and showcased more upside after being dealt to Houston in July. He’s also left-handed. This deal should be good news for another free-agent southpaw, Sean Manaea (No. 14). Like Kikuchi, Manaea was marvelous over the final few months of 2024, and his talent has tantalized teams for years, even when the results have
What are the potential long-term ramifications of pitchers signing earlier in the offseason?
## Free Agent Pitching: A Hot Stove Surprise?
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. We’re diving into the hot stove season with a look at the free agent pitching market. Joining us to discuss this surprising early activity is baseball analyst, Alex Reed.
**Alex Reed:** Thanks for having me.
**Host:** So, while everyone is focused on Juan Soto and the big outfield move, there’s been a lot of movement with starting pitchers, even early in the off-season. How surprising is this to you?
**Alex Reed:** Well, it’s definitely noteworthy. Last year we saw some big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery wait it out until spring training to sign, so this early action on guys like Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Martinez is definitely a change of pace. [[[2](https://sports.yahoo.com/free-agent-rankings-mlb-top-players-available-2023-04-25-mlb-offseason-aaron-judge-carlos-correa-bro-235921443.html)]]
**Host:** What do you think is driving this trend?
**Alex Reed:** A few things, probably. Firstly, we’ve seen teams becoming more proactive in addressing their needs early. There’s less hesitation to make a move before the competition heats up.
Secondly, I think some pitchers are recognizing that the long game might not always be in their best interest, especially if they see security and good contracts being offered now.
**Host:** Looking ahead, do you anticipate this trend continuing? Will we see even more pitchers signing early?
**Alex Reed:** It’s hard to say for sure. There are still some big names on the market, like [mention a notable free agent pitcher]. So, I think we’ll continue to see some movement, but it’s likely to slow down a bit as teams focus on the Soto situation and other big offensive moves.
**Host:** Certainly an interesting development to watch. Thanks for sharing your insights, Alex Reed.
