“Models predict a fourth wave in October or November, but our behavior can change things”

Between 21 and 27 August, 2,012 new contaminations were recorded on average each day (+ 3%) in Belgium, according to figures from Sciensano. In addition, between August 24 and 30, 59.6 people were admitted on average each day to the hospital. In short, if they stabilize, the various indicators linked to the coronavirus in Belgium have increased in recent weeks.

And, with the relaxations that come into effect on Wednesday, Sciensano expects a “fourth wave” to land here. In any case, this is what Steven Van Gucht announced at a press conference this morning: “We have models that assess the development of short-term figures,” he explained. “In the short term, we expect a further increase in contaminations and hospitalizations, especially in Brussels”.

Steven Van Gucht believes that stabilization is possible in Flanders, where vaccination coverage is high, unlike the capital. Regarding the longer-term vision, Steven Van Gucht is even quite pessimistic: “On our models, we see a fourth wave appearing, which could occur during the months of October or November. We imagine that its importance will be between the 2nd and the 3rd wave ”.

And inevitably, Wallonia but especially Brussels would be more affected than Flanders: “But let it be clear, these are possibilities, scenarios, but not certainties. And the forecasts for hospitalizations can be halved if we adapt our behavior. The way we behave can cause the curves to flatten out, ”he concluded.


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