More than half of sales in 2025 will be hybrid and electric

Enrollment of pure electric vehicles of all kinds (passenger cars, two wheels, commercial and industrial) closed 2019 with a total of 24,261 units, which is 56.3% more, exceeding the 24,000 units provided by the Ministry of Ecological Transition. According to data from the Business Association for the Development and Promotion of Electric Mobility (Aedive) and the National Association of Sellers of Motor Vehicles, Repair and Parts (Ganvam), electric mobility rose 2.1% in December, reaching the 2,375 units registered.

The sales of pure electric cars registered a notable decrease in the month of December 2019, of 33.4%; Plug-in hybrids fell 2.5% and gas-gas hybrids fell 34.8%. Only conventional hybrids grew, 87.8%. These data contrast with the strong increase in sales of models driven by alternative technologies throughout the year. From January to December, they grew 40.7%.

We are in the process of transition to more sustainable models, with vehicles that are increasingly less or even have zero emissions, something that can be checked month by month.

The growth of electric motorization will be progressive and will be parallel to the take-off of the autonomous vehicle, which will barely represent 0.1% of sales in 2020 but will reach 7.3% in 2025, which represents half of the registrations of electric cars.

More than half of vehicle sales (55%) will correspond to hybrid and electric engines in 2025, a year marked by the European Union for manufacturers to reduce the emissions of their entire fleet by 15% compared to 2021 levels , according to data from MSI for Sumauto, a specialist in vertical automotive portals that groups Autocasión and AutoScout24, among others.

Thus, by 2025 hybrid vehicles will reach a 40% share of sales in Spain, almost three times more than electric vehicles, which will represent 14.5%. This growth could be greater if the price difference of these models with respect to those of traditional combustion is solved and, in the specific case of the electric one, the lack of recharging infrastructures, the volatility of the batteries and the average recharge time.

This development of the autonomous car will lead carsharing to reach its maximum expression, which will allow for a public transport without driver on demand without rigid schedules or pre-established lines, mainly in cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants by 2025. However, for that year The shared car, although it will increase its market share, will barely represent 5.3% of sales.

On the other hand, the democratization of new mobility formulas and technological advances will drive the irruption of the connected car. And, in 2025, 70% of cars will have this technology and will be connected to each other, with traffic infrastructures, workshops, dealers, etc. In this context, it is expected that in ten years the business generated by the connected vehicles will equal the entire turnover of the after-sales, more than 14,000 million euros, according to Solera data, which moves more than 4 million repairs per year.

The fulfillment of the emission reduction objectives must come not only from the entry into the park of new zero emission models, but also from the removal of those older and, therefore, more polluting vehicles. At present, the average age of the park is around 12.3 years, with 31.7% of cars over 15.

A novel flattening plan linked directly to a special and real control of emissions in the ITV, and endowed with 500 million euros, as Faconauto proposes in its White Paper of Distribution, would allow the removal of 500,000 polluting vehicles at the rate of a subsidy of 1,000 euros per vehicle.

In addition, a plan with these characteristics would have a dynamic effect on the market, since 20% of the owners who squashed a car, within this plan, would buy another new or used one, thus reducing vehicles over ten years old, the most polluting , in 185,000 units by 2025, going from 1.6 million planned in 2020 to 1.4 million within five, almost 12% less.

According to the general director of Sumauto, Nicolás Cantaert, “the commitment to new mobility will bring about the growth of the connected car, which will provide a large volume of information to the market. In the case of dealers and sales, this will lead to new business models with which to compete and to which they must adapt based on experts in data management, but who have not only the figures, but also a historical, capacity of analysis and user knowledge. That is what will make a difference. ” .

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