The OECD sharply revised upwards its forecast for global growth in 2021, to 5.6% against 4.2%, counting on the combined effects of the US mega-stimulus plan and vaccination, in its interim economic outlook published Tuesday.
“The global economic outlook has improved markedly in recent months due to the gradual roll-out of effective vaccines, the announcement of new support measures in some countries and signs that economies are coping better than expected with the restrictions. “, explains the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. On its own, the $ 1.9 trillion plan wanted by US President Joe Biden to revive the world’s largest economy contributes 1 percentage point to this 1.4 point revision of global growth, explained to the AFP Laurence Boone, the chief economist of this organization which brings together 37 developed countries. Thanks to this massive injection of liquidity, the United States, which counts one fifth of deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic, should see its rate of GDP growth double compared to what was expected in December, at 6, 5%. Without causing any major inflationary risk, Ms. Boone believes.
The growth gain is more modest for the euro zone, where the vaccination program is slipping: continental GDP is expected to grow 3.9% this year, when the United Kingdom, where schools reopened on Monday, is expected to post growth of 5.1%
For France, the OECD expects a rebound of 5.9%, virtually unchanged from its latest forecasts, 5.7% for Spain, 4.1% for Italy and 3% for the Germany.
Engine of world growth, China, where exports jumped 60% in one year in January-February, is expected to post a growth of 7.8%. But it is in India that the rebound is most spectacular: after plunging 7.4% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow by 12.6% this year.
There are, however, risks weighing on growth: too slow a rate of vaccination or “the emergence of new variants resistant to existing vaccines”. “The faster countries vaccinate, the faster they can reopen their economies (…) Our main message is therefore to speed up the pace of vaccination to reopen the economy,” said Boone.
More than 304.8 million doses of anti-Covid vaccines have been administered worldwide, a figure that hides profound disparities: Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population, the United States nearly 20%, France around 5% and Brazil 3%, according to OECD calculations.
The OECD sharply revised upwards its forecast for global growth in 2021, to 5.6% from 4.2%, counting on the combined effects of the US mega-stimulus plan and vaccination, in its interim economic outlook published Tuesday.
“The global economic outlook has improved markedly in recent months due to the gradual deployment of …