Of the 15 candidates in search of the Presidency of Honduras in the November 28 elections, only four have a chance of becoming the successor of Juan Orlando Hernandez, who will end his term on January 27, 2022, according to analysts and opinion polls.
“So far the polls say that electoral preferences are focusing on just four parties, Libre (Freedom and Refoundation), Nacional (in power), Liberal and Salvador de Honduras, “the sociologist and analyst Julio Navarro, who agrees with the opinion polls that have transcended.
The other eleven presidential candidates “still do not appear in the polls, almost not in a testimonial way, much less as a electoral threat“, for the four indicated by the polls, he added.
PROLIFERATION OF PARTIES DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO CULTURAL ELECTORAL
In 1981, when Hondurans they were summoned to the pollsAfter almost 20 years of military regimes, four parties participated, led by the traditional National and Liberal, founded more than a century ago.
Four decades later Honduras will hold the eleventh general elections in a contest in which fifteen candidates will seek to be the successor of Hernández, who in 2017 was re-elected, despite the fact that the Constitution did not allow it.
Navarro considers that “the proliferation of parties does not correspond to electoral culture preferences that exist in Honduran society or among citizens eligible to vote. “
In this regard, he pointed out that the proliferation of parties has been mainly due to the convenience provided by the financing of the vote with the previous Electoral Law, which established that each party, regardless of the votes it obtained, guaranteed 15% of the political debt of the majority party.
This allowed that in past elections, parties with 3,000 votes received eleven million lempiras ($ 367,000) in concept of political debt, causing “great motivation” among some actors who saw that “there was no risk of organizing a party and participating in elections, because they would be very well rewarded.”
The analyst said that the outbreak of parties has had the sympathy, in the last twelve years, of Nacional, winner of the last three elections, because through these small parties it has managed to obtain a majority of representation at the polling stations, now called boards. vote takers.
TRADITIONAL PARTIES CONTROLLED BY POWER GROUPS
From the return to constitutional order, mainly the traditional political parties, Liberal and National, “have been losing their validity to the extent that they began to be practically controlled by groups in the country with factual powers, which are not interested in having strong representative leaderships with historical roots within the parties “, affirmed Navarro.
Those groups with factual powers “are interested in the appearance of new leaders, almost ephemeral, with whom it is easier for them to negotiate the particular interests that they have,” the Honduran analyst stressed.
Navarro also said that Honduras, like other Latin American countries, “is experiencing the accelerated path of decomposition of all political parties, so that in each election there are new parties with greater weaknesses compared to the groups of economic power.”
THE US’S FAVORITE CANDIDATE IS LEFT TO KNOW.
Several analysts agree that any party that wins the elections, when it comes to power on January 27, 2022, will be very weak due to the lack of a consolidated opposition and the fragility of the country’s institutional framework.
In this regard, Navarro indicated, ironically, that before, the US Embassy knew who Washington would support to president of HondurasBut now “it is difficult to suspect” because the northern country has not had an ambassador in Tegucigalpa for several years.
However, Navarro believes that the US State Department should be sympathetic to one of the candidates or sees that the legitimacy of power in Honduras is critical and that is why it may not lean towards any of the political parties.
Washington’s interest could be centered on the emergence of “a stable government” from the November elections with which it can rethink its relations with Honduras, the sociologist emphasized.
Navarro perceives that in Honduras “there is no discussion about the complex issues inherited historically” and that “the new ones that have appeared are much more threatening than the historical ones.”
In that sense, he is of the opinion that there should be an electoral understanding between the parties that have a chance of winning on national issues that have to go through the National Congress, considering that the polls say that no party will have a majority in that sense. state power.
The interest of a stable government, not by its very nature, could lead to pressure from the United States due to its urgency to rethink its relations with Honduras, which is going through the National Congress, Navarro said.