Despite a fragile epidemiological situation, a high number of deaths and hospitalizations, Montreal may have reached the peak of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations according to new simulations from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) and Laval University.
• Read also: Quebec adds 45 deaths to its death toll
• Read also: Quebec behind in the race for the 3rd dose
According to their models, which are based on current health measures, including the closure of schools, peaks of cases and new hospitalizations have been reached or would be reached by January 17.
“The peaks of current hospitalizations and deaths would occur later depending on the length of hospitalization and the time between infection and death. In the absence of data on the cases, the incidental hospitalization data for the next few days will provide a better understanding of the trajectory of the epidemic ”, indicates the INSPQ in a press release.
The simulations show in a pessimistic scenario that going back to school in January could delay the peak of cases.
“In this sense, monitoring transmission among young people when they return to school is essential to better anticipate the evolution of the epidemic in the coming weeks and the risk of percolation to more vulnerable groups”, indicates Éric Litvak, vice-president for scientific affairs at the INSPQ.
“In the coming days, new and current hospitalization data will allow us to better understand the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the very high community transmission, the situation remains fragile even if a slowdown in the growth of cases and hospitalizations could occur soon, ”says Marc Brisson, researcher in the Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Research Group. infectious diseases from Laval University.
More details will follow …