on the rise, prices at the pump should remain high this summer

Currently, a liter of diesel is billed at around 1.4 euros including tax and that of unleaded petrol 1.5 euros.

What is the price of gasoline right now?

Vacationers hitting the road this summer should expect a relatively high fuel bill. Compared to last summer, a liter of diesel or gasoline is around 20 cents more expensive. After a historic and dizzying drop in the spring of 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 crisis, prices at the pump have been increasing slowly but surely for a few months. If they have not yet reached their level before the Covid-19 crisis, they are approaching it.

June 4, according to the latest available data published by the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the liter of diesel was sold for 1.4 euros including tax; that of unleaded around 1.5 euros. At the same time last year, a liter of diesel was around 1.2 euros and unleaded around 1.3 euros. A year earlier, in June 2019, a liter of diesel was over 1.4 euros and that of unleaded, over 1.5 euros.

How to explain this increase?

The evolution of fuel prices at the pump is directly linked to the evolution of the price of oil on the world market. Boosted by the global economic recovery, oil prices are rising. This week, Brent and WTI hit $ 72.93 and $ 70.65 during trading, a first since May 2019 and October 2018, respectively.

«The recovery in oil demand should return to the level of 2019 in the second half of the year after a significant decline in 2020 under the effect of CovidPredicted Guy Maisonnier, from IFP Énergies nouvelles (formerly the French Petroleum Institute). For its part, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global demand for oil is expected to exceed pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. “Global oil demand will continue to recover“And”by the end of 2022, demand is expected to surpass pre-Covid levelsShe wrote in a report containing her first detailed forecasts for next year.

Will this increase in prices at the pump continue?

«These prices should stay that way for the next two or three months. They shouldn’t increase that much anymore. They are currently high.
Towards the fall, we may see a small drop with the dollar which could fall.“, Anticipates Philippe Chalmin, specialist in raw materials, professor at Paris Dauphine and editor of the Cyclope benchmark report.

To this must be added supply management by OPEC +, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. These countries, which had voluntarily restricted their production to support prices during the crisis, are starting to turn on the tap to support the increase in demand. “Current prices are at the level of equilibrium that producers want», Emphasizes Philippe Chalmin.

The trend could also be reversed. The prices of black gold could indeed evolve according to the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, including the oil embargo in force since 2018. This could lead to a return to the market. a large volume of black gold. This would automatically lower world oil prices, with a possible impact on prices at the pump.

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