Open the way to survive the stomach, fix expensive things, open the country to revive tourism
On March 20, 2022 at 10:20 p.m.
Academics, businessmen, oral presentations Accelerate the inflation of expensive things. and hurry to unlock travel urgently
19 March 65 at Convention Hall, Learning Center Building, Building D, Thai PBS Television Station, Isara Institute, Foundation for Mass Media Development of Thailand Together with the participants of the course for middle-level media executives in broadcasting and television affairs (BorPor.Kor.), class 10, organized a public seminar on the topic of “The way to survive the stomach Economic Solution Through the Wave of COVID: Opportunity or Risk?” There were 5 speakers, consisting of Dr. Pisit Puaphan, Director of Macroeconomic Policy Office. As Deputy Spokesperson for the Fiscal Policy Office, Dr. Somchai Jisuchon, Director of Research on Comprehensive Development Thailand Development Research Institute, Dr. Thanit Sorat, Vice Chairman of the Employers Traders Organization Council and Thai Industry, Mrs. Marisa Sukosol Nunphakdi, President of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), and Dr. Thongyu Kongkhan, Chairman of the Advisory Board Land Transport Federation of Thailand Join the discussion to find a solution to the economic crisis in many dimensions.
Dr. Pisit Puaphan, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy Office As Deputy Spokesperson for the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) said Covid, economic activities must be halted. Since 2020, the government has received a loan decree. to fix the problem Healing and rehabilitating the economy and society with a limit of 1 trillion baht and the Royal Decree on Loan to fix the problem Healing and rehabilitating the economy and society additionally in 2021 with a budget of 500 billion baht, which helps to heal the economy in many dimensions. both tourism sector various compensation measures procurement of vaccines
At the same time, what has become clear in the past is that the healing program for the people, both half and half, we win the 33rd grade, we love each other, can help 40 million people, which on average by 2020, the money that the government gives to the people. The average is 13,400 baht per person per year.
“I have to admit that covid has made the poor increase. From before the average of 4.3 million people with poor people, but when the number of people with covids increased to 4.8 million, but if there are no medical measures from the state There will be 11 million poor people,” said Dr. Pisit.
However, the direction of 2022, the government still has an unallocated budget. It has the ability to stimulate the economy and heal those who have suffered. Since the beginning of last year, the situation in Thailand has started to improve. There are more vaccines But Thailand is also facing important external factors, such as the Russo-Ukraine war, which the government and related agencies are studying. analyze the situation The heavy impact that occurs is the rising oil price. because when the price of oil rises Costs are increasing in every part which may need to find a halfway point. find a mechanism to allocate The Ministry of Finance is already prepared.
while Dr. Somchai Jitsuchon, Director of Research, Thorough Development Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) points out that at present, the public debt ceiling in Thailand is 70% or 10% of the country’s GDP, so there is a chance to increase the debt by another 10%, or a value of about 2 trillion baht. Depending on how the money will be spent, if not, the situation may worsen. because the economy will grow very slowly If you don’t help now, then 5 years from now, the economy won’t be able to continue.
“Even though the debt may be high, the economy can continue. and what is needed in the future What the government has to do is to build a good Thai economy, not to repair or just mitigate the impact,” said Dr. Somchai.
This year’s direction Will the overall economy improve? there is a possibility still have the opportunity to grow But it all depends on the spread of COVID-19. If the mortality rate is a small proportion and accelerate the progress of vaccination needles to stimulate the elderly people may cause the state to not shut down the city The economic situation will improve. “What the state must do It’s not just a cure for the breath alone. But need to add liquidity that leads to adjustment Business restructuring This makes the adjustment process the least costly and fastest. one of them is Credit for business restructuring Governments need to work more with commercial banks and the digital finance sector. There are many things that the government can do. including up-skills and reskills to create new strengths to support Thai economic growth in a new way,” said Dr. Somchai.
While Dr. Thanit Sorat, Vice President of the Federation of Thai Traders and Industry Organization (ECON Thai), reiterated that we are facing two overlapping crises. both the epidemic crisis and the Russo-Ukrainian war. It has a profound effect on the Thai economy. which directly affects the labor market with enough COVID-19 Entering Thailand since 2020, the economy has deteriorated markedly, GDP is negative 6.1 The tendency to recover is estimated that The fastest is half of next year (2523).
“The Russo-Ukrainian War even though it is far from Thailand But it affects the global economy. especially the oil price It also caused inflation crises in many countries. and still do not know how long this war will last from overlapping crises causing supply shock Prices of imported products have also risen,” said Dr. Thanit.
Dr. Thanit continued that while the labor sector The tourism business was directly affected. Affects more than 3 million tourism workers, while about 6.3 hundred thousand people are unemployed. There are still about 6 hundred thousand unemployed people who work less than an hour a week. At the same time, new graduates will come out to fight for work As a result, the unemployment rate tends to increase.
“After this crisis The world will never be the same again. It is highly likely that employment will have to change. Operators will use machines to replace humans more. to reduce the risk of infection,” said Dr. Thanit.
As for Marisa Sukosol Nunphakdi, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said that now tourism is in good shape, from 2019, there are 3.89 million tourists, 3 trillion in revenue, until 2021, there are 4.2 hundred thousand tourists, a minus 90 percent. The income figure does not need to be calculated. together Even with the urge to travel But it was considered the most difficult situation. as far as I’ve experienced More difficult than Tom Yum Goong Because it affects both the turbocharger and the supply chain, the problem that affects a lot is cash flow. Those who can live are those with low debt, heavy wallets, long strings, especially big hotels.
Ms Marisa continued that although the government had money to help from the Sorflone loan, 90% of the demand for tourists was lost, but the debtor did not want to be in debt, and the debt relief warehouse was transferred to the bank. and if there is a chance to buy it back What to do is We have to create demand. because now many hotels can’t hold Only 2-3 more months, which now there are foreign investors wanting to buy, but he wants a good location, looking at the next 2-3 years, he sees an opportunity
“What I want the government to help the most urgently is: 1. Cancellation of quarantine measures for foreign tourists. Whether it’s about RT-PCR testing before entering the country, canceling Test & GO, and canceling quarantine. For those who have been vaccinated, they can travel in Thailand. 2. Encourage Thai people to travel more,” said Marisa.
While Dr. Thongyu Kongkhan, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Federation of Land Transport of Thailand reflects the perspective of energy that is critically ill in 3 aspects: 1. Energy allocation model 2.Production model 3. Forms of energy users The government should use this period to oversee the entire oil price structure. to make the oil price structure fair to the people not allowing any one group to benefit from the energy business
Dr. Thongyu said that in the case of crude oil prices in the world market, the crisis now Crude oil costs $100 a barrel. The government should reduce the excise tax. Another important variable is the refinery. In the past, the people still carried the burden for more than 20 years. The role of the oil fund The need to stabilize oil prices but what is happening now The money was taken from the oil fund. and energy conservation funds for misuse Collecting money from one group is used for another. In which the people who use and pay back do not benefit. Over 20,000 million in three-year capital funds have been transferred to the Ministry of Finance. So the question is…
“Why did the funds transferred over 20 billion dollars not transfer these funds back to the Energy Fund? but go back to borrow more and more” and prepare to borrow more than 40 billion baht that will have to be in public debt, causing people to bear the burden in this section as well what the state can fix It has to make sure that both energy funds are fair, transparent, and can be audited at every step,” said Dr. Thongyu.