Raise the legal retirement age to 64 for generations born after 1961? The scenario of a parametric reform – at the rate of one more semester per year from 2022, according to the Echoes -, which resurfaces every four mornings, infuriates the unions. “I’m fed up with making this subject, like that of unemployment insurance, an electoralist object disconnected from reality. The competition for the most reformist! It is against this that we have been mobilized from the start, ”storms Yves Veyrier, the secretary general of FO.
With Laurent Berger (CFDT), Philippe Martinez (CGT), François Hommeril (CFE-CGC) and the other union officials, there is not the shadow of a sheet of cigarette paper. All say no to such a reform. On the Medef side, in favor of the postponement to 64 years, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, the boss of the bosses, preaches caution: “To carry out this reform, you need political capital. […]. For me, it is a presidential debate, all the candidates must position themselves, ”he has already argued.
The risk of a return to demonstrations within a year of the presidential election
The concern common to all organizations? How to restart the machine when unemployment is still at its highest – 6 million job seekers in all categories – and that companies lack visibility … Not to mention the fear of many failures from the next school year mixed with the impacts of the end of “whatever the cost”, the support given to the height of the Covid-19 epidemic. Priority of priorities, employment is the slogan they want to see inscribed at the heart of the social conference, the date of which should be arbitrated by Emmanuel Macron in the coming days.
However, this so-called parametric reform scenario, the sole purpose of which is to save money (14 billion euros according to the figures from Les Echos), will have consequences on employment. “Raising the retirement age automatically leads to an increase in unemployment, at least in the short term, and particularly in times of crisis,” explains economist Michaël Zemmour. More unemployed seniors and fewer vacant positions for young people, this is the immediate induced effect that the unions will not fail to remind Emmanuel Macron. Just as they will insist on the social inflammability of such a decision.
While the health crisis is not over, the Head of State runs the risk of a return to demonstrations within a year of the 2022 presidential election. “In 2010, when we decided to pass the legal age to 62, that put a million people in the streets, confides Raymond Soubie, the former social adviser of Nicolas Sarkozy. I am not sure that future voters will taste the reform. “