Polls: what is the profile of Eric Zemmour’s electoral potential?

For more than a month Eric Zemmour has been tested in the polls for the presidential election, and that the people questioned today declaring themselves ready to vote for him are, in proportion, more numerous (from 14 to 17%) . Beyond the fragility of such curves (linked to the still small sample of respondents, in a period when the presidential offer is not frozen), the opinion surveys published provide information on the profile of the potential voter. Zemmour. And on his strategy.

In our last Ipsos poll published in early October, the identity essayist attracted 24% of the voters of François Fillon 2017, as well as 26% of those of Marine Le Pen for the same election (similar proportions among other pollsters), in line with its DNA which is both socially conservative and its anti-establishment positioning. However, when we look again towards 2022, “for the moment he takes mainly votes from Marine Le Pen. And if it is positioned in a point of balance of the rights, so far the base of LR has held up rather well, ”comments Frédéric Micheau, deputy director general of the OpinionWay institute. “This is because part of the electorate of Fillon 2017 has since partly switched to Marine Le Pen”, tries to explain Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos.

From a sociological point of view, the pro-Zemmour respondent looks more like the voter of Xavier Bertrand than that of Marine Le Pen. In his voting intentions, “we find a sociology typical of the right-wing voter. It is good among older people (50-65 years, 65 and over), wealthy categories, executives, graduates but also among owners without loans, ”explains Mathieu Gallard. “And it is low among young people, workers and the less educated,” continues Frédéric Dabi of Ifop. Where precisely, Marine Le Pen performs. The former Figaro journalist also attracts twice as many respondents as men than women.

“If he takes Le Pen’s voices and the glass ceiling that goes with it, it won’t work”

The hypothesis formulated by several pollsters is that Eric Zemmour would attract former voters disappointed with the right, by Nicolas Sarkozy then François Fillon, who have gradually slipped towards abstention or towards Marine Le Pen since 2012. And of which some would be ready to flow back… but towards the Zemmour offer. “Marine Le Pen’s gains in recent years have come at the expense of LR. There could be a form of reverse return, ”says Frédéric Micheau of OpinionWay. “Zemmour takes the voters we should get back. Today it does not reduce the right, but it dries up its earning potential, ”an LR strategist analyzed some time ago. “The young people who revolve around Zemmour, they all went through the Jeunes Pop! »Illustrates an elected LR, a former UMP youth executive at the time of 2010.

Aware that he is grudging especially on Marine Le Pen, Zemmour tries to anchor his speech more to the right, multiplies the references to the RPR. “It’s his obsession at the moment. Because if he takes the voices of Le Pen and the glass ceiling that goes with it, it will not work, ”says an LR executive who knows the Zemmour galaxy well. “But it will be difficult to break into the popular classes, it is too intellectual Parisian”, bet the same. “But the immigration theme can speak to the popular electorate…” warns Frédéric Micheau.

Éric Zemmour would like to suck the voices of the two LR / RN poles. “The dynamic behind Zemmour is clear, but that doesn’t mean anything 7 months before the election. It does not have an electoral base as solid as the others (LR and RN), you have to be careful, ”insists Mathieu Gallard of Ipsos. “It is too early to talk about electoral dynamics, we are in the pre-campaign phase,” said Frédéric Micheau, who recalls that the popular categories are not interested for the moment of the ballot, which may tend to disadvantage, among others , the RN, in the voting intentions.

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