The political course begins with a change in trend in the polls. The PSOE regains strength after the summer break and is placed in a technical draw with the PP, which would retain for the minimum its condition of first force in the barometer prepared by the Instituto DYM for 20minutos. United We can also rise, confirming that the Government has slowed its wear and tear and regains its pulse, while Vox loses steam with respect to the July data.
According to the survey, to be held today general elections the popular would prevail with 26.1% of the votes and between 108 and 114 seats, but the upward trend that began coinciding with the Madrid elections would slow down. With respect to the previous barometer they lose two points, which is the same distance that the Socialists recover: the PSOE would go from 24% to 26% of the votes and would rise with between 105 and 110 minutes, its best figure in more than a year.
Behind, Vox would maintain its third force status, with between 50 and 54 minutes and 15.6% of the votes, but it loses one point compared to the previous poll and marks its minimum since September 2020.
The other side of the coin represents her United we can, who is the one who grows the most: it rises 2.3 points –from 10.5% to 12.8% – and would have between 30 and 33 seats. Although it is still slightly below its last electoral result, it is the best forecast for the purples since the general pasts.
The sums in a Congress like the one drawn by this barometer would be complex. PP and Vox They would stand in a range of between 158 and 168 seats, while the PSOE and United We can harvest from 135 to 143.
In votes, the right would add 41.7% of the votes and the current government coalition would be left with 38.8%. No bloc would be guaranteed to govern and alliances with minority parties and nationalist and independentist formations would be decisive to decant the investiture.
If this distribution of forces is compared with that of the current Congress, the PP would rise – it now has 89 deputies – and the PSOE would lose around a dozen, while Vox and United We can practically repeat their results. More Country it would reap 3-4 seats – it now has three – and Cs would go from 10 to 2-3.
If the data on voting loyalty are observed, the main conclusion is that the right is still more mobilized than the left, a trend that has been repeated throughout the last studies, although the difference has been reduced significantly in the last two months.
In July, 85% of the voters of the PP and 92% of those of Vox affirmed that they would vote for those parties again. Now those percentages have dropped to 79% and 86% respectively, six points in each case. On the other side of the board, the loyalty of the socialist electorate and United We Can has grown, going from 66% that both marked in July to 73% for the PSOE and 74% for the purple, that is, a jump of seven and eight points, respectively.
The data also describe voting transfers between formations. In the case of the PP, it would lose some support towards Vox –6.4% of popular voters would now opt for Abascal, while conversely the transfer would be 4.5% -. For their part, the Socialists would gain some support in the left bloc, by recovering 6.9% of United We Can voters, while only 4.8% of Socialists would now opt for the purple ones.
The most critical situation is that of Citizens, which would retain only 42.8% of its voters and lose 13.4% to the PP, 9% to the PP and 4.9% to the PSOE. What’s more, 19.9% of orange voters in 2019 now say they don’t know who they would vote for.