Which cities will see their prices increase or decrease in the next six months? The Better Agents platform, a real estate appraisal site, has developed a tool, the real estate tension index (ITI), which allows to know the trends according to the number of buyers compared to the number of sellers.
Paris, in September 2020, had 123 buyers for 100 sellers. Six months later, we have gone to 108 buyers for 100 sellers, which is almost breakeven. This means that the number of additional buyers compared to sellers has been divided by three and this is reflected in prices (−2.5% over the period). This configuration makes it possible to say that this decrease is likely to be maintained within six months.
Same development for Toulouse, which has gone from 23% more buyers six months ago to 11% today. Result: prices down 2.5%. Similar trend in Montpellier, which had 20% more buyers in September 2020 and more than 10% today: prices are down 0.6%.
Conversely, some cuts in the ITI do not cause prices to fall, as demand is still there. Thus Strasbourg has gone from 30% more buyers in September to 17% today but the tension is still high, which has caused a price increase of 4.5% over the same period. The same for Lille, which went from 33% to 19% more buyers than sellers, which has seen its prices continue to climb 1% in six months. In these cities, prices will therefore continue to rise.
And when the ITI is stable, so are prices, as in Quimper, Dijon or Besançon, where prices are stagnant at −0.1%. “It’s a balance of power between two camps,” summarizes Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director at Meilleur Agents. If the former are more numerous than the latter, the prices increase ”. To find this figure, he relies on the 2.5 million monthly visitors who log on to the site.
“These are the data that allow us to do foresight,” explains the expert. We consider that beyond 15% more buyers, the market is dynamic and above 30%, it is very dynamic ”. This device had made it possible to anticipate the recovery of Parisian prices in 2015, whereas the previous year they were clearly down.