With the easing of the government’s reconstruction safety diagnosis, 14 out of 25 apartment complexes nationwide that have been judged for maintenance will be able to receive ‘conditional reconstruction’. As the government has virtually abolished the second safety diagnosis, which was also called the ‘tomb of reconstruction’, it is expected that complexes that have been judged as ‘maintenance’ this time will be able to promote reconstruction.
In particular, since this improvement plan is applied to all complexes that are currently undergoing safety inspections or have not completed the second safety inspection, apartment complexes older than 30 years in Nowon, Gangnam, Songpa, Gangdong-gu, as well as 24,000 households in Mok-dong, Yangcheon-gu will benefit. is expected to be able to see Even if the business viability is somewhat low, there is a possibility that reconstruction will become more active centered on reconstruction complexes in old Gangnam complexes with large cash holdings.
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 8th, among complexes with more than 200 households in Seoul, as of January 2023, there are a total of 389 complexes with a construction age of 30 years or more (excluding complexes that have passed safety inspections), with Nowon-gu having the most (79) and Gangnam (46). ), Dobong (34), Songpa (23), and Gangseo/Yangcheon (22 each), followed by old apartments.
There are 4 complexes in Seoul, 4 in Gyeonggi, 2 in Busan, 3 in Daegu, and 1 in Gyeongbuk by region that will be judged as ‘conditional reconstruction’ in ‘maintenance’. In Seoul, Nowon-gu (1 complex), Yangcheon-gu (2 complexes), Yeongdeungpo-gu (1 complex), etc., and in Gyeonggi-do, Namyangju, Bucheon, Suwon, and Ansan each have 1 complex. Busan has one complex each in Suyeong-gu and Busanjin-gu, and Daegu has one complex each in Dalseo, Buk-gu, and Seo-gu. In North Gyeongsang Province, one complex in Gumi City will be alleviated through conditional reconstruction.
However, in the current real estate slump, the dominant analysis is that the reconstruction market is unlikely to be greatly stimulated by the government’s deregulation of reconstruction. In some reconstruction complexes, the interest burden on members has also increased, such as demanding interest on relocation expenses, which were usually lent without interest. The interest rate for business expenses, which are mostly borrowed before they go into general sales, is also on the rise. In the case of areas subject to the pre-sale price ceiling system, there is a possibility that increased project costs may lead to an increase in member contributions, making it difficult to promote reconstruction easily despite deregulation.
Kim Hyo-sun, senior member of real estate at NH Nonghyup Bank, said, “It is difficult to have a big impact on the housing market with this improvement plan, but it seems that old complexes waiting for reconstruction will be able to speed up the reconstruction project through this opportunity.”
Lee Eun-hyung, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Construction Policy Studies, said, “Since the environmental conditions in the first half and second half of this year are different, the effect of this measure on the soft landing of the real estate market will be limited.” It won’t be easy,” he predicted. Commissioner Lee said, “Unlike the first half of this year, when quotes fluctuated even with the slightest policy change, the current market is not immediately reflected in quotes and transactions even if a tolerable policy comes out.” It seems to be large,” he explained.