This would not be the first time that China has lost control of a re-entry into the atmosphere, in 2020 and in 2021 the chaotic scenario was repeated. Now, experts have not yet been able to predict where the fragments will fall.
It is a Long March 5B rocket whose mission was to carry a module to Tiangong 3, the Chinese space station that is currently under construction. After completing your task, an ‘uncontrolled’ re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere has begun and an impact is expected this weekend.
The space agency of the Asian country and the engineers who monitored the rocket still do not know or have any approximation of where the fragments could fall. However, they point out that the risk of it falling in a highly populated place is minimal.
Despite this, his fall set off alerts, since around 21 tons. Experts say that the object will disintegrate during the fall, although some large debris will inevitably remain.
Why did the re-entry of the rocket go haywire?
The rocket was launched into space on July 24 and its design and trajectory were designed so that it would fall in a safe area of the ocean, as is customary for this type of mission. This is because aerospace objects of that size do not reach orbit.
In the case of Long March 5B, it did reach orbit, so from then on scientists could no longer predict where it would fall, since it deviated from the previously calculated route.
From the Aerospace Corporation -which keeps track of the trajectory of the moving object- point out that what would fall to Earth would not be the entire rocket, but rather up to 9 tons of its mass.
“The general rule of thumb is that 20 to 40% of the mass of a large object will hit the ground, but the exact number depends on the design of the object. In this case, we would expect between five and nine metric tons“, they explain.
The latest prediction, which the agency shared on Twitter, suggests that the impact could occur next Sunday, July 31. There they emphasize that “it is still too early to determine a significant debris footprint.”
Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:
???? 31 Jul 2022 07:34 UTC ± 22 hours
Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates:https://t.co/SxrMtcJnj0 pic.twitter.com/MwWiF85iPI— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) July 26, 2022