Russia could face a longer and deeper recession amid the growing impact of U.S. and European sanctions, an internal memo prepared for the Kremlin has revealed.
The document, which officials and experts spent months putting together in an attempt to accurately determine the impact of the isolation of Russia’s economy from the invasion of Ukraine, is significantly more pessimistic than official statements, which officials typically display. I am depicting a situation. The document was prepared for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. A copy of the document seen by Bloomberg News has been confirmed as authentic by people familiar with the matter.
In two of the three scenarios presented in the report, the contraction accelerates next year, with the economy returning to pre-war levels in the late 2020s or later at the earliest. The ‘inertia’ scenario assumes the economy bottoms out next year at 8.3% below 2021 levels. Under the “stress” scenario, the economy is expected to bottom out in 2024 at a level 11.9% lower than in 2021.
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Russia Risks Bigger, Longer Sanctions Hit, Internal Report Warns(excerpt)