Since the Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov took over command of the “military special operation” against Ukraine in mid-January, his tenure has been marked by an attempt at a general winter offensive, the British Ministry of Defense wrote in its intelligence update on Saturday.
The aim of this offensive was to extend Russian control over the entire Donbass region. “After 80 days, it is becoming increasingly clear that this project has failed,” the British said. Russian forces on the frontlines in the region could have recorded minimal gains with heavy casualties. In doing so, they would have largely gambled away the temporary personal advantage gained through the Russian “partial mobilization” last fall.
Massive snowfalls complicate attack
According to the Ukrainian military, it has fended off further attacks on the city of Bakhmut, which has been fought over for months. “In the past 24 hours, our defenders repulsed enemy attacks in the area of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske,” the Ukrainian general staff said on Saturday. Both villages are located on important access roads to Bachmut. Russian sources had previously reported massive snowfalls hampering the advance of the attacking troops.
“The worsening of the weather is making it more difficult to take action,” Russian military expert Boris Roshin complained on Saturday night. Images and video from the area show massive snowfall and a thick blanket of snow. Weather is an important factor in warfare. A Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected in the coming weeks. According to experts, the soil must first dry because otherwise the heavy military vehicles could get stuck in the mud.
Ammo production increased many times over
Bachmut has been hard fought for months. The Russian attackers have now surrounded the city, which has now been completely destroyed, from three sides and, according to their own statements, control about 70 percent of the city area. For Russia, the capture of Bakhmut is important in order to achieve the war goal of conquering the eastern Ukrainian Donbass region. Bakhmut is part of the line of defense in front of the conurbation between Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last major cities Ukraine still holds in Donetsk Oblast.
According to its own statements, Russia has increased its production of ammunition many times over. “This applies to both ordinary and high-precision ammunition,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a general staff meeting on Saturday. The 67-year-old did not give any more details. This would allow Russia to achieve its war goals, Shoigu said. In addition, work is continuing to increase production. Schoigu’s statements could not be independently verified.
The shortage of ammunition is a problem both Ukraine and Russia are grappling with more than a year into the war. The West, on whose supplies the attacked Ukraine depends for its defense, is trying to expand its production. Months ago, Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin called on the domestic arms industry to increase the output of weapons and ammunition. The companies work in a multi-shift system in order to meet the requirements of the military.
Moscow launches second draft campaign
Against the background of the war of aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for more than a year, the draft campaign for basic military service began in Russia on Saturday. The first of the two campaigns this year will last until July 15, the RBK portal reported on Saturday, citing a decree by Kremlin chief Putin. According to Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky of the General Staff, a total of 700,000 potential conscripts were registered in advance.
The conscripts, this time 147,000, should not be used for the war in Ukraine, he assured. Zimljanski said on Friday that the convocations of the district military replacement offices would also be sent electronically for the first time. Where this is not possible, the decision will continue to be handed over personally. Meanwhile, politicians are arguing about the validity of the electronic notification: According to the Deputy Chief of the Defense Committee in the State Duma, Yuri Shvytkin, such a notification is equivalent to a draft notice. In contrast, Viktor Bondarev, head of the defense committee in the Federation Council, told the upper house of the Russian parliament that such e-mails “are not draft notices”.
