Already hurt Russia, whether invading or withdrawing
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(British Economist magazine February 19, 2022 issue)
Still, Putin will try to declare victory.
For a moment, it seemed like bright news came out.
On February 14, President Vladimir Putin, shown on Russia’s state television, said in a statement to the Foreign Minister’s suggestion that diplomatic efforts should continue despite Western warnings that an invasion of Ukraine is imminent. He answered “OK”.
The next day, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it would withdraw some of the 180,000 troops that had been dispatched near the border with Ukraine. The reason was that the military exercises mentioned as the reason for the dispatch from the beginning were completed.
Government officials and markets in each country sighed a little relief.
Alas, Osint (an intelligence activity that collects and analyzes data from public sources) quickly reveals that while a few units are in motion, much more are preparing for combat. I made it.
Many Western security officials were surprisingly frank about Mr Putin, accusing him of lying and repeatedly warning him that an invasion was imminent.
Even if the troops withdraw, the crisis is not over yet.
And no matter what happens, whether it’s a war or not, Mr Putin has already harmed his country Russia by plotting to invade Ukraine.
You may have earned tactical points, but …
There will be many objections to this view from Western intellectuals.
For example, Putin points out that he was able to get the world’s attention without firing, and that Russia once again proved to be an important country.
In addition, Mr Putin destabilized Ukraine and impressed everyone that the future of Ukraine was in his hands.
In the future, avoiding war may lead to concessions from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
He also emphasized his political abilities in the country and was able to distract the public from economic hardship and the crackdown of opposition forces such as Alexei Navalny (by the way, Navalny was in mid-February. , Was pulled out to court again)-and so on.