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In response, Moscow He already uses all his cards to avoid the exodus. First Russian airlines were reportedly banned from selling tickets to Russians between the ages of 18 and 65, unless they had an exemption from the Ministry of Defence. And according to the portal “ABC”, from tomorrow Wednesday 28 to “men of mobilization age” they will be denied leaving the country. True to form, too will punish to those who protest against its orders: the Government warned that those who participate in these events face 15 years in prison. The most conservative figures -taking into account that non-propaganda sources of information are scarce- warn that there are already more than 1,400 detainees.
Despite the offer of the Minister of the Interior to Kazakhstana country that since last week has received 98,000 Russians, the Kremlin argues that it will not request the extradition of those who are already outside its territory.
Putin questioned
The protests have not been the only public demonstrations against the mobilization, which already demonstrates its inefficiency by calling the elderly or dead to the front. Euronews realizes that citizens have been violent: in Irkutsk, a recruiting chief was wounded by a shot, while, in other latitudes, “a dozen enlistment offices have been attacked in recent days, many of them with Molotov cocktails”.
Does this check that the war against Ukraine is highly unpopular with Russians? Juan Negri, director of the Political Science career at the Torcuato Di Tella University of Buenos Aireswarns that it must be taken into account, first, that there are no public opinion figures or concrete empirical evidence on what happens in Russia, a country that controls almost everything that happens in its society. Negri also asks for caution: in a country of 145 million inhabitants, 260,000 does not seem to be significant, especially if there is information that shows that the deployment of troops has not stopped. “However, what these demonstrations do show is that there are Russians who are not willing to be part of the invasion. Being a war with so many problems, the rational attitude is to flee”.
From there, the specialist proposes, it can be understood that Vladimir Putin has lost credibility, that it has not been able to convince a large part of the citizenry of the success of its company that it previously sold as patriotic. “He used the notion of divided nation, which speaks of the responsibility of the state to protect Russian communities abroad, and there were nationalists who supported it. But it seems that there is a large group that understands that the war has negative consequences on the country and their own future, so they prefer to escape before becoming murderers.”.
The result: a paradox. “In general, what you see in wars is that people flee from the invaded countries, but now we also see how they flee from the aggressor country. And eye that they do it legally”.
To explain that the Putin the invasion is getting out of hand, Negri remembers the fog of wara concept associated with Carl von Clausewitz which explains the loss of ability to see beyond the conflict. Hence, he underestimated the logistical capacity of his army, the Ukrainian resistance and the response of the Russians themselves.. Will he respond with an iron fist to the insubordinates? “It is a very likely way out. This exodus is not good for him and it is likely that he will need to put some kind of clamp on mobility. But it is not that simple: just as marching and fleeing are signs of weakness, the stocks will also be and could show that their only support is strength.”.
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Where are the Russians fleeing?
Finland
According to the border guard, the traffic has become “more intense than usual”, to the point that in Cherished country, Nujamaland e Imatra long queues form to drop off Russia. Only on Friday the 23rd of this month, 6,998 Russians entered the country, which according to Infobae, represents 88% more “compared to the same day of the previous week, when 3,714 people did so”.
The figures will begin to decrease after Finland apply restrictions on the Russians – which are part of the sanctions for the war – to avoid “serious damage to the international position. from the country. In this regard, the Chancellor Pekka Haavisto held: “All tourists will be blocked from crossing the border. This applies both to those traveling on Schengen visas previously issued by Finland and to those traveling on Schengen visas issued by other countries.”.
Estonia, Letonia, Lituania and Polonia
The German wave notes that, for the time being, these countries “deny entry to russians”. The measure, which applies from Monday 19, denies to tourists, but it does not hinder refugeesthose who visit relatives, truckers y residents permanent of the European Union.
How many people are affected by this measure? at least in Estonia“less than a tenth” of the 4 thousand “Russians entering Estonia daily”.
Belarus
Being one of the most faithful allies of Moscow, it is one of the least safe countries for Russian defectors. According to the newspaper Nasha Niva“Belarusian security services were ordered to track down Russians fleeing conscription to hotels and rented apartments and report them to Russian authorities”.
Georgia
The special envoy of RTVE slogan that, since Putin ordered the military mobilization, the number of Russians who cross to Georgia -some say they do it for tourism, others confess that they flee- tripled. There are queues of cars that would exceed the 15 kilometers. Others media point out that, on the last Sunday and in the direction of Stepantsminda, these exceeded 30 km. According to estimates, crossing the border can take about 48 hours.
The portal “The newspaper” points out that, since the war began in February, the capital Tbilisi received more than 40 thousand Russians. Furthermore, the agency EFE collect the statements of Vakhtang Gomelauri, Minister of the Interiorwho maintained that 10,000 Russians enter the country a day, “which means between 40 or 45%” more since the mobilization was announced.
According to Infobaesince the war began 50 thousand Russians entered the country.
Mongolia
On Sunday the 25th, as reported AFP, entered more than three thousand Russians. The information was confirmed by Major G. Byambasuren, who works as head of the checkpoint of Altanbulag. According to him, of that figure, “2,500 were men and the rest women and children”.
Kazakhstan
The president Kassym Jomart Tokayev declared: “These last days, many people come from Russia to our country. Most are forced to leave as a result of a no-win situation […] We must take care of them, guarantee their safety”. With that in mind, the figures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs make sense: since last Wednesday, about 98 thousand Russians crossed the border (and, strangely, 65 thousand left the country). The Border Service confirms the increase in vehicular flow by more than 20%
The first consequences of this decision can already be seen in the real estate market. The agency EFE He says that, before, the rent for a one-bedroom apartment amounted to US$200, while now it varies between US$400 and US$1,650. In addition, landlords require a deposit of US $ 1,600 if it is a Russian who wants access to one.
Armenia
Despite not having a border with Russiaimmigration institutions inform since February, about 40,000 Russians have traveled to Armenia.