published6. August 2022, 21:52
Russian attack What can Ukraine achieve with the weapons supplied – now and in the future?
Since Russia’s invasion at the end of February, Ukraine has repeatedly asked for Western weapons. Two experts explain what the attacked country could be able to do with the deliveries made so far – and what might not.
… President of Ukraine Zelensky on the US-supplied in June …
REUTERS
…Himar’s multiple rocket launcher system.
AFP
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Himar systems, M777 howitzers and Gepard tanks: Ukraine has received a number of heavy weapons from the West.
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Experts are skeptical as to whether the Ukrainian forces will be able to launch a major offensive against Russia.
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The continued support of the West, both militarily and politically, is decisive for the future and for the war.
The first Himars multiple rocket launchers arrived in Ukraine from the US in late June – almost exactly four months after Russia’s war of aggression began. There were also Harpoon missiles and M777 howitzers and Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Germany.
Since then, the Ukrainian General Staff has reported that counter-offensives on occupied territories have been launched, particularly thanks to US weapons. In videos and official communications, the government and army regularly celebrate the disruption of Russian logistics by destroying ammunition depots.
But how much can the Ukrainians achieve with the weapons they have delivered so far – now and in the future?
The US delivered M777 howitzers to Ukraine, here in the Kharkiv region on July 21, 2022.
REUTERS
Russia has learned
There are still tactical advances by Ukraine. But overall, the war currently seems static, says security analyst Wolfgang Richter from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin of the German Press Agency.
In eastern Ukraine in particular, the Russians have learned from their mistakes. “They concentrate their artillery locally in relatively limited areas, but create high fire superiority there and slowly drill forward.” At the same time, the Ukrainians suffered considerable losses as a result of the delaying tactics, says the former military man.
Ukraine “not yet prepared for a major offensive”
Richter is skeptical that the Ukrainian forces will be able to launch a major offensive. Possibly they would recapture one or the other village. But: “But I don’t think they are set up for a major offensive yet.”
“This is a completely different operation with many forces that have to be coordinated, you have to establish regional superiority in terms of forces and fire in order to take larger areas.”
At the same time, Russia has not yet fully mobilized and large amounts of – albeit outdated – military technology are available. Ukraine, in turn, is heavily dependent on western arms supplies.
M777 howitzers in the Donbas region.
REUTERS
Russia with war production, West not
That’s why the question is how strong these will be in the future, says Richter. However: “The West has not switched to war production.” It’s different in Russia: Here, a new law has given the government the right to oblige companies to produce for army needs.
With regard to the USA in particular, Richter says: “The production of the Himar ammunition, which the Americans have delivered and are still delivering to Ukraine, is gradually reaching the limits of its own capacities.” It is also questionable how long the political will to provide support will last.
Germany supplied Gepard anti-aircraft tanks.
AFP
Support remains crucial for Ukraine
Steven Horrell from the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington also thinks it is crucial whether the West will stick with his support. Ukraine’s fight against Russia is “a real fight of democracy against authoritarianism,” he says.
It is therefore important that the west of Ukraine helps regain sovereignty over internationally recognized borders. Territorial concessions should not be seen as acceptable solutions, the former naval officer said.
Little hope of negotiations
The German expert Richter also emphasizes: “Of course, the goal cannot be a surrender peace, that would be completely unacceptable.” At the same time, he points out that it is important to talk to each other at some point in order to end the war.
However, the situation does not give him much hope at the moment: “My fear is that all sides are currently only relying on military means because they hope to improve their own negotiating position through the next battle.”
Steven Horrell from the Center for European Policy Analysis: “Ukraine’s fight against Russia is a real fight of democracy against authoritarianism.”
REUTERS
Ukraine: Lacking Soviet ammunition
The war of aggression against Ukraine ordered by Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has been going on for almost six months. In the east, the Ukrainian armed forces initially had to admit defeat in the Luhansk region at the beginning of July. In neighboring Donetsk, on the other hand, they hold large parts – for now.
Their main line of defense there runs from the river Siverskyi Donets through the cities of Siwersk, Soledar and Bakhmut. But here, too, the Russians are slowly advancing due to their artillery superiority. Should the three small towns fall, the path would be clear for the Russian army towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Before the war, more than half a million people lived in this conurbation.
“They just don’t exist anymore”
The main problem of the Ukrainian armed forces in artillery warfare is the running out of ammunition for their existing Soviet-designed weapons. “They simply don’t exist anymore,” Brigadier General Dmytro Krassynlnykov told Hromadske.tv.
In the past 30 years since the Ukrainian declaration of independence, no own production has been set up. This is another reason why the delivery of western artillery systems, which regularly cause great dissatisfaction in Moscow, is now so important.
(DPA/gux)