Sam evolved into a category four hurricane in the Atlantic: what will its trajectory be?

(Photo: EFE / Orlando Barría)

Hurricane sam strengthened more than expected and is already advancing as a phenomenon of category four on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds churning at 233 kilometers per hour.

The system is located closer and closer to the Lesser Antilles. Throughout the week, Central American authorities feared that the cyclone would enter the waters of the Caribbean Sea. However, as the days go by, a more accurate trajectory forecast has been drawn up and it seems that Sam will not sail the waters of the region.

As of this Sunday, September 26, its vortex will stop pointing towards the Caribbean and will begin to move towards the northwest. The forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC, for its acronym in English) estimate that it will move all the time through the water heading northwest, passing at a distance of Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba, where they will not feel its effects.

If the planned is fulfilled, Sam will continue his way across the Atlantic, in the direction of Bermuda islands (located at the height of the Carolinas, USA).

This means that it does not represent a risk for eastern Mexico, although it will be necessary to be aware of the reports issued by the state Civil Protection agencies throughout the week.

(Photo: SMN / Conagua Clima)
(Photo: SMN / Conagua Clima)

At the moment, the cyclone is located very far from the national territory, 4,150 kilometers east of Quintana Roo and 1,760 kilometers from the lesser antilles. Its gusts reach 270 kilometers per hour and it is expected to remain as a major hurricane (categories three, four and five) at least until Thursday, September 20.

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Sam is the 18th system to form in 2021 in the Atlantic basin, out of a total of 19 cyclones. In addition, it is the fourth largest hurricane to hit this season, after Grace, Ida and Larry.

According to the forecast published by the National Meteorological Service (SMN), this year between three and four major hurricanes were expected in the Atlantic, and a maximum of 19 tropical cyclones, which are just those that have been registered so far.

Hurricane season 2021 in the Atlantic Ocean

The hurricane season in the Atlantic began on June 1 and the following systems were expected, according to the forecast of the SMN of the National Water Commission (Conagua):

* Tropical storms: between 8 and 11.

* Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2): 4 to 5.

* Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 3 to 4.

Total: between 15 and 20 tropical cyclones.

The figure is above the average registered between 1991 and 2020 for this region, of 14 systems. However, it is a far cry from the 30 cyclones that were reported last year.

Names for the Atlantic: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henru, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindi, Nicolas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda.

The season will end on November 30.

Stock photo of waves from the passage of Storm Peter.  EFE / Orlando Barría
Stock photo of waves from the passage of Storm Peter. EFE / Orlando Barría

Rain forecast for this Sunday, September 22

This Sunday, September 22, significant rains in 16 states of the country, including the Mexico’s valley.

The largest accumulations are expected in Guerrero and Oaxaca, with registers of 75 to 150 millimeters. In addition, very heavy rainfall is forecast in Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Puebla, southern Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas, from 50 to 75 mm; and strong in Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Colima, State of Mexico, Mexico City and Morelos, from 25 to 50 mm.

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At the same time, showers will fall in Sonora, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, where 5.1 to 25 millimeters are forecast. And in the Baja California Peninsula, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí and Tamaulipas isolated rains will fall that will not exceed five mm.


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