[Epoch Times October 20, 2021](Interviewed by The Epoch Times reporter Luo Ya and Long Tengyun) The latest satellite pictures show that the CCP is upgrading its distanceTaiwanThree seats within a few minutes’ flightAir force base.This is after the CCP dispatched a record-breaking military plane to disrupt Taiwan in early October, which once again aroused the attention of the outside world.Taiwan Straitintense situation. What do military experts think about this?
The latest satellite photos show that the CCP may make military preparations for the attack on Taiwan
On October 13, the U.S. technology and military website The Drive released for the first time satellite photos taken by Planet Labs (Link). The photo shows that Longtian Airbase, Huian Airbase and Zhangzhou Airfield, where the PLA Air Force’s Zhangzhou command post is located, are being renovated or have built missile arsenals and aircraft bunkers. And other buildings. Moreover, construction has started early last year, and it has not stopped even during the new crown epidemic.
The article stated that there are no clear signs of the CCP’s deployment of fighter planes from the photos, but the upgrade of the base can be used to intimidate Taiwan or support actual amphibious and airborne assault operations.
Longtian Airport and Hui’an Airport are only 170 and 190 kilometers away from Taiwan, and are the two closest military airports to Taiwan. Both airports are used for transfers and used for bombers to move in during wartime.
Earlier, the U.S. Navy pointed out for the first time in its new strategic guidelines published on October 10 this year that the Chinese Communist Party’s naval power can even be “matched” with the United States. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense also stated in the 2021 CCP’s Military Power Report released on August 31 that the CCP has “beginning to paralyze Taiwan’s air defense, sea control, and counter-production warfare systems.”
Recently, the media on both sides of the strait have reiterated the 8-day and 7-night exercise “Han Kwong 37” that was launched by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense on April 23 this year. The media reported that Taiwan had defeated the invasion of Taiwan for the first time in this computer soldier push. The Chinese Communist Liberation Army.
Taiwan’s “Han Guang” tactics have been reported by the media on both sides of the strait a few months ago. On April 30 this year, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense clarified that the main purpose of Han Kuang’s tactics is to hone the army, and “there is no winner or loser.” Similarly, news of Longtian and Hui’an Airport was exposed by the media last year.
Military signals released by the CCP’s upgrade of the three airports
Su Ziyun, director of Taiwan’s National Defense Strategy and Resources Research Institute, told The Epoch Times that satellite photos and analysis of these bases were already available before, but now they have only updated the data. “These three airports have mainly increased the length of runways and taxiways, as well as strengthening. Some bunkers (bunkers) were built.”
He said that the CCP’s move has three intentions. “One is to increase the airport-related capacity to facilitate the take-off and landing of large aircraft; the other is to serve as a temporary concentration center for helicopters of the CCP army to facilitate direct attacks across the sea; and the third is that these airports can operate large-scale aircraft. Special aircraft, such as Yun-8, Yun-9, anti-submarine aircraft, and enhancedTaiwan StraitMonitoring and control. “
Su Ziyun emphasized that in addition to the airport itself, the Fu-Xiamen high-speed rail will also be opened to traffic at the end of this year and early next year. “If the Fu-Xia high-speed rail is opened to traffic, it is equivalent to opening a fast track for the CCP to gather forces. The CCP can evade satellite reconnaissance and use airborne troops. Take the high-speed rail to Longtian and Hui’an airports and launch a direct raid on Taiwan.”
He believes that the CCP’s reconstruction and strengthening of the aircraft fort is not only to respond to Taiwan’s counterattacks, but also to resist possible US military intervention. “From the satellite photos, after the expansion of the capacity of the Zhangzhou base, it may accommodate two wings, about 120 fighters. Generally, a standard airport can accommodate two squadrons to one wings, about 60 fighters.” He said in April this year. The satellite photos of China have shown that all three airports should have missile defense positions.
Taiwan’s senior media person and military commentator Qi Leyi believes that the CCP’s upgrade of the three airports of Longtian, Hui’an, and Zhangzhou is to deploy at the front and move the front line forward.
“Longtian and Hui’an Air Force Bases are very close to Taiwan, more than 100 kilometers away, and airplanes can fly to Taiwan in 7 minutes. These three airports are first-line airports. Therefore, the CCP’s current renovation and expansion are of course forward deployment. He added, “This is also a battlefield prepared for the substantial escalation of US-Taiwan relations.”
Qi Leyi said that when the CCP fighters fly out of the second line, they can make a transition to the first line and provide the ultimate logistical supply, so it will strengthen the first-line airport.
He said that many of the CCP’s planes came from the second-tier airports, and the first-tier airports were basically not in use. “The situation has recently escalated, so it has been strengthened, and at the same time it is telling the United States that it has improved its combat readiness. I think this is the CCP. The meaning of this move.”
Qi Leyi doesn’t think that the CCP is upgrading the airport to deal with Taiwan’s high-tech weapons. He believes that the CCP is mainly transferring aircraft to advance the air combat power.
The military significance of Taiwan’s Han Guangbing push
Regarding the Han Guangbing push in April this year, Su Ziyun explained that the computer push is to digitize the performance of various parameters of the weapon and simulate the combat capabilities of both sides in the computer for comprehensive evaluation. “This is a mature technology, and all countries are doing it. It’s a technical wargame.”
Su Ziyun focused on the interpretation of the changes in Taiwan’s defense operations reflected by the Han Guangbing push. “In terms of deployment at the actual operational level, we have seen the strategy of decentralized deployment and asymmetric operations.”
He explained that decentralized deployment is to disperse large forces into smaller forces. “In this way, the target is not concentrated, so as to avoid being overwhelmed by a single pot, so as to preserve its strength.” The investment in missiles is low in cost, and the speed at which combat power is formed is also fast, which can effectively offset the CCP’s quantitative advantages. This time the military push has also been verified.”
He admitted that the CCP has made great progress in the quantity and quality of weapons and equipment. “So what Taiwan is looking for is a local advantage, and it is fighting asymmetric operations.”
Qi Leyi also agrees with the actual meaning of Han Guangbing push. “Tweeting is the front stage of military exercises, followed by actual troop drills. Use actual troops to verify this trooping.”
At the same time, he also emphasized, “It doesn’t make much sense for the computer soldiers to push whoever wins and who loses.”
He said that the greatest significance is to use computers to deduce various battlefield scenes, and then deduce which ones are insufficient and need to be reinforced; and then re-verify when the second stage of the actual soldiers.
In this year’s Han Guangbing push, Taiwan successfully “resisted” a thousand missile attacks by the People’s Liberation Army. Qi Leyi said that in reality, the odds of victory for both sides may be difficult to estimate. “The CCP has a large number of missiles, and its long-range strike capability is also improving. However, Taiwan also has a home field advantage and is the defender. So it is difficult to estimate wins or losses now.”
Forecast the situation in the Taiwan Strait: Will the CCP attack Taiwan
In response to the current increasingly tense situation across the Taiwan Strait, Su Ziyun believes that it is unlikely that the CCP will use force.
“The CCP is creating momentum.” Su Ziyun said, “The CCP’s approach is tantamount to helping Taiwan find friends. On the contrary, this is an opportunity for Taiwan.”
He believes that the opportunity for the CCP to dare to do it is not small, but small. “I believe the CCP will not consider the cost in order to win Taiwan, but the CCP cannot ignore the risks. The CCP cannot accept the risk of failure.”
For example, Su Ziyun said that for the CCP, landing operations are actually very difficult. “Landing operations are a series of operations, including the first echelon, the second echelon, and the logistics echelon. As long as a link is broken in the middle, the entire landing will fail. So this is an important opportunity for Taiwan to make a big gain.”
He believes that if the CCP really uses force against Taiwan, the United States and its allies have a high chance of defending Taiwan. “But I think Taiwan will not place its hopes on the help of others, but on strengthening its own strength.”
Su Ziyun also cited examples such as the Battle of Chibi in China and the Marathon in the West to illustrate that small victory over big cases is not uncommon in the history of war.
Qi Leyi believes that in early October, the CCP’s military planes severely disrupted Taiwan, the purpose should be to show the United States its military strength. “The six-nation exercise in the United States was in the southwest of Okinawa. The 149 sorties dispatched by the CCP were in the southwest of Taiwan. There was an overlap in time, but there was no head-on confrontation.”
He also doesn’t believe that the CCP will attack Taiwan. “The CCP may be preparing as much as possible, but the conditions and capabilities are insufficient now.”
Qi Leyi believes that on the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States has adopted a strategically ambiguous policy that is beneficial to itself.
“The principle of the United States is to ensure regional stability and avoid wars. If there is a war, the United States has its flexibility and different approaches.” He said that the United States regards Taiwan as a hard-core ally, so it will definitely take action. “But I think The United States is not involved in the Taiwan Strait, but is concerned about the Taiwan Strait. Of course, this concern includes actions.”
In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statement that “the CCP does not need to use force to reunify Taiwan,” Qi Leyi believes that the CCP should pay attention to the fact that if it attacks Taiwan, Russia may have a neutral attitude and may not intervene. “The CCP absolutely cannot expect Russia to help it when it reigns over Taiwan.”
Editor in charge: Ye Ziming#