Signs of a prolonged crisis in Ukraine… Bitcoin is down again

[이데일리 최훈길 기자] The coin market turned downward in two days. This is because negotiations between Russia and Ukraine broke down, and the United States and Europe withdrew Russia from the International Interbank Telecommunication Association (SWIFT) to block the international financial settlement network. If the Ukraine crisis goes into a prolonged phase, the coin market is expected to contract.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Photo=provided by AFP)

After the news of Swift’s departure, it fell

According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market site on the 27th, Bitcoin recorded $39,112, down 0.55% from the previous day at 8:30 a.m. on the same day. This is a result of a decrease of 2.37% from the previous week. Bitcoin, which turned upward on the 25th, turned downward two days after the news of ‘Swift exit’ on the morning of the 27th.

Altcoins (non-Bitcoin coins) also showed a downward trend, such as Ada by 0.58%, Ethereum by 1.23%, and Solana by 3.61%. As of today’s domestic Upbit standard, Bitcoin recorded 47.76 million won, down 0.14% from the previous day.

According to Alternative, a virtual asset data research company, the ‘fear and greed index’, which indicates investment sentiment in the coin market, scored 26 points as of the 26th, indicating a ‘fear’ level. This is similar to the previous day’s index (27 points, Fear) and slightly higher than last week’s 25 points (Extreme Fear). In the index, the closer the index goes to 0, the closer the market sentiment is to extreme fear, and the closer it is to 100, the more it means extreme optimism.

According to CoinWords, a cryptocurrency mining information site, the Bitcoin hash rate recorded 178.83 EH/s on the 26th (as of 10 PM). It was lower than the previous day’s 188.28 EH/s. It is lower than the recent high on the 12th (266.94 EH/s), and it is still not a recovery trend. Hash rate refers to the computational processing power mobilized to mine Bitcoin. In general, the higher the hash rate, the higher the difficulty of mining, the lower the supply, and the higher the possibility that the bitcoin price will rise.

“Parallel line confrontation could last for more than a year”

The reason the coin market has stalled like this is that the Ukraine situation has become serious. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine broke down. There was a great deal of disagreement over the place of the meeting. Russia claimed Minsk, Belarus, and Ukraine claimed Warsaw, Poland. Belarus is an ally of Russia. Poland is an active supporter of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has announced the resumption of military operations.

The US and Europe have agreed to impose high-strength sanctions on Russia. The leaders of the United States, Germany, France, Italy and the European Union (EU) have agreed to expel Russia from Swift. Swift is a highly secure computer network used by more than 11,000 financial institutions worldwide to securely send and receive payment orders. If they are expelled from here, Russia will not receive any export payments.

In fact, it is a high-intensity economic sanctions that remove Russia from the international financial settlement network. The sanctions became possible as Germany, which had been cautious about the Swift sanctions due to its high dependence on Russian natural gas due to its renewable policy, changed its position. Ukrainian President Zelansky predicted a ‘decisive battle’ with Russia.

In this way, the situation in Ukraine is going into a prolonged phase due to Russia’s military operation and the strengthening of sanctions by the West. If the situation worsens, the stock or coin market is highly likely to weaken due to the sentiment to reduce risk on risky assets. This time, as the fear of war in Ukraine grew, the Nasdaq and the coin market showed a coupling and synchronization phenomenon and fell at the same time. Coins were not ‘digital gold’.

In an interview with E-Daily, Lee Si-wook, president of the Association for International Trade (KDI Graduate School of International Policy), said, “With Russia occupying some territories in Ukraine, a parallel confrontation in which both camps adhere to their respective positions could last for more than a year.” predicted

Park Jung-ho, head of the New Northern Economic Department at the Korea Institute for Foreign Economic Policy (KIEP), a Russian expert, said, “As the Ukraine crisis deepens, there are concerns about energy and grain price hikes, inflation intensifying, increased volatility in the capital market due to accelerated interest rate hikes, and capital outflows from emerging countries.” said.

Since the news of Swift’s exit from Russia on the morning of the 27th was announced, the price of Bitcoin has been declining. (Photo=Coin Market Cap)

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