The year-on-year increase in social financing exceeds market expectations
In March, social financing increased by 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 253.2 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing rose again after dropping in February. At the end of March, the stock growth rate was 10.55% year-on-year, an increase of 0.34pct from the previous month.
Among them, RMB loans, direct financing and indirect financing increased by more than 400 billion yuan year-on-year.
MarchcreditThe delivery rhythm is low before and after high
Previously, due to the outbreak of a new round of epidemics in many places and the continued sluggish property market, the market was worried about credit in March. But in fact, the increase in credit growth in March was outstanding compared with the same period last year, and even hit a new high in the past 13 months.
After a brief adjustment in February, it showed a rhythm of credit lending again in March.
Corporate short-term loans + bill financing + undiscountedbankAcceptance bills increased by RMB 1.16 trillion year-on-year in total, accounting for 91% of all new RMB loans. We expect big state-owned banks to take the lead and increase credit supply in mid-to-late March.In effect bill discountinginterest rateAfter March 24, it has risen sharply, reflecting a very clear policy attitude, that is, the demand for stable growth remains unchanged, and credit easing must be implemented. In addition, although the medium and long-term loans of enterprises only increased by 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year, the trend of less increase in February has changed, and the significance of a positive signal is more worthy of attention.fiscal policy andcurrencyPolicies have made concerted efforts, and the epidemic has been gradually brought under control. With the improvement of economic fundamentals, medium and long-term loans to enterprises are in recovery growth.
The performance of household loans was relatively sluggish, and short-term loans and medium and long-term loans still decreased year-on-year. Weak short-term loans reflect that household consumption is still more rational and conservative in the current environment, some of which are also affected by the epidemic prevention and control of outbound consumption. Medium and long-term loans continued to weaken, which we believe is mainly attributable to the fact that the commercial housing sales market is still at the bottom. Since March, the property market relaxation policies in many places have increased layer by layer, from 30 large and medium-sized cities to second- and third-tier small and medium-sized cities.In addition to reducing the down payment ratio and mortgageinterest rate, and some cities have even lifted purchase restrictions. Residents have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and the effect of policies is relatively lagging behind, and subsequent housing purchase demand is expected to gradually recover with the increase of stimulus.
In March, the government bond development force, the monthly net financing amount and the year-on-year increase both exceeded the previous two months, which also formed a clear support for the stabilization of social financing. The strength of government bonds reflects the determination of fiscal policy to underpin and avoid economic stall. With the accelerated start of epidemic mitigation projects, the policy effectiveness will be more durable.
Ease of credit exceeded expectations, it is worth looking forward to further
The higher-than-expected social financing in March reflects the determination and patience of the economy to stabilize economic growth. At present, it is not necessary to demand the simultaneous improvement of the total volume and structure, but should pay more attention to the positive signals released by the policy. In March, despite the outbreak of epidemics in many places and the lack of a significant recovery in the property market, credit still achieved a high-scale year-on-year increase. The credit expansion effect in April is more worth looking forward to.The lenient credit under the demand for stable growth isbankThe main line of logic, and then driven by the reversal of the real estate policybankRisk mitigation. As the epidemic is gradually brought under control in the second quarter and credit ease is getting better, banks are expected to continue to benefit.recommendPostal Savings Bank，Bank of Jiangsu，Bank of WuxiandIndustrial Bank。
Risk warning: The epidemic affects macroeconomic recovery; credit demand is lower than expected; credit risk fluctuates
(Article Source:Tianfeng Securities）