Standard Chartered Bank Maintaining a GDP growth target of ’65, growing 3.3%, fearing that tourists will not reach the target of 10 million
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Economist Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) said it maintained its forecast for the Thai economy (GDP) to grow 3.3% in 2022, with a cautious view on the Thai economy since before the coronavirus pandemic. 19 Omicron species, however, view that private investment has not continued to show signs of recovery. In addition, consumer confidence, although improving but still at a low level Both of these variables reflect the uncertainty in the private sector that continues to cover this year.
However, there are still factors that must be monitored throughout the year. is the outbreak of omicron species that are occurring around the world that will affect the Thai tourism industry during the high season (high season), which will make foreign tourists Set a yearly goal of 5-10 million people, can it be achieved or not?
There may also be volatility in the financial markets as a result of the difference in interest rates between Thailand and other central banks in the world. This is because the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will maintain its policy interest rate as low as possible to sustain the economy. which may cause capital outflows outside the country especially when Thailand does not have a helper like the current account balance and tourism as strong as in the past along with during the last quarter of the year should have started a political movement Because Thailand will enter the general election in 2023
However, although inflation has clearly increased but still within the set range of 1-3%, therefore, with the country’s economy still in need of support The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will maintain the policy rate at 0.50% throughout 2022. If the Thai economy really recovers, it is expected that the MPC will raise the policy rate twice in 2023.
However, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled to raise the policy rate. together with the impact of the outbreak of omikron species In the first half of 2022, the baht will likely continue to depreciate against the US dollar. come back to recover The baht should start to appreciate in the second half of the year at 32 baht/USD.