Fed rate hike rate, inflation and recession are variables
Expected fluctuation of KOSPI in May 2,600-2,850… Possibility of a technical rebound
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(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Seon-hee Yoon = Financial markets around the world are suffering from inflation (inflation), intense austerity, and concerns about an economic slowdown.
The Korean stock market also entered a full-fledged bear market last month as concerns about strong austerity by central banks around the world spread.
The KOSPI fell 2.27% last month to give up the 2,700 level, and the KOSDAQ index fell 4.21%, struggling to keep the 900 level.
Experts believe that the stock market is highly likely to be influenced by factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate hike this month, a diagnosis of inflation, policy implications, and implementation of quantitative austerity (QT).
The expected fluctuation of the KOSPI for this month suggested by securities companies was 2,600-2,850, slightly lower than the previous month. However, in terms of investment strategy, some market strategists said that if the correction is made steeply, there may be an opportunity to buy stocks from the bottom.
However, there are also many voices calling for focusing on volatility risk management this month in consideration of price variables.
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◇ “KOSPI bottom of 2,600 in May…there is a possibility of a technical rebound”
Looking at the fluctuations of the May KOSPI predicted by securities companies on the 1st, experts generally viewed the KOSPI 2,600 as the bottom.
The expected fluctuation range by securities company is ▲ Korea Investment & Securities 2,640-2,840 ▲ Samsung Securities 2,600-2,850 ▲ Kiwoom Securities and Kyobo Securities 2,600-2,800.
Dae-Jun Kim, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said, “The slowdown in growth and soaring prices continue to hold back the stock market, and changes in monetary policies and liquidity environments in each country are also burdensome.
Foreign investors net sold more than 4.9 trillion won in the stock market last month amid a sharp rise in the exchange rate.
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “The stock market remains under the influence of macro uncertainty even this month, and it will take time for a trend rebound.” expected to make
Some experts predicted that the stock market might rebound when the power of bad news weakens.
Kim Yong-koo, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, “We expect stock prices above neutral to go beyond empirical pessimism this month.” looked forward
“If the global economic downturn does not materialize, the downside support of the 2,600 KOSPI is solid,” he emphasized.
Kyung-Min Lee Daishin Securities[003540] The researcher also explained, “If the US FOMC and the US Consumer Price Index and China’s price index were announced in April, concerns about monetary policy and the possibility of inflation passing the peak, the opposite investment environment could be created.”
A researcher at Kiwoom Securities said, “As the recent stock market crash cannot be explained by basic conditions, there is a possibility that stock markets in major countries will technically rebound in May.”
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◇ “Buy in installments when undergoing deep adjustment”… “Beware of inflation and interest rate variables”
Experts advised that in terms of investment strategy, it is necessary to pay attention to inflation and the economy.
Daishin Securities researcher Lee said, “If the price level passes the peak, anxiety about the economy will subside.”
“If the short-term price adjustment develops quickly and strongly, it should be used as an opportunity to actively increase its weightings.”
On the other hand, some are cautious about investment.
Korea Investment & Securities emphasized to be on the lookout for industries that are vulnerable to rising interest rates, saying that the Fed’s tightening stance may continue until inflation reaches a peak.
Kyobo Securities advised that investors should prioritize safe currencies, high-quality bonds, and stocks that are excellent in responding to momentum, saying that if inflation is caught and the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy disappears, the preference for safe assets may intensify due to concerns about a recession.
He also advised that investors should focus on risk management, stating that it will be difficult to find financial asset investment opportunities in the first half of the year as prices may fall if inflation is caught.
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2022/05/01 06:27 Send