Struggle to end the stock market boom

WWhen it comes to the financial markets, the focus is always on the stock market. It’s rare that the bond market steals the show. That alone would be enough to consider the past week as something special. What was the excitement when, after a leisurely Martin Luther King Day on Monday, the yields on American government bonds rose sharply, for 24 hours, from Tuesday to Wednesday noon, the yield on the ten-year bond climbed from 1.807 to 1.8988 percent. A plus of 5 percent, which would have been remarkable even for the stock market. Heilig’s Blechle, says the Swabian.

But the stock market also had little to smile about. When Wall Street reopened on Tuesday morning in New York, the S&P 500 index started a sharp downward trend. On the one hand, this had the disadvantage that growth and especially technology stocks now have a high weight in it. For them, low interest rates are beneficial because they encourage expansion. But higher rates aren’t good for non-growth stocks either: as they rise, the value of future cash inflows falls, and hence stock valuations rise.

But stockbrokers wouldn’t be stockbrokers if they wanted to be frightened by it in the long run. After two days of suffering, those who didn’t want to be discouraged came forward again. Actually, the USA is doing well economically, it is still some time before the interest rate decision of the central bank and there is no need to fear even higher interest rate increases than those that have already been priced in, was the ultimately not really logical narrative. And after Procter & Gamble’s higher costs didn’t show any traces in the income statement in the past quarter, it was suddenly there again: the profit optimism for the balance sheet season.

It seems that the past is traded on the stock exchange, even if it is also called the future. But what you have in writing, you can confidently take home, as Goethe said. The future is uncertain, and that’s the best way to write it yourself. After all, you’ve made good money with shares, and so you come to the razor-sharp conclusion that what shouldn’t be, as Morgenstern once wrote, can’t be – so shares have to stay great .

The beginning of the week was still nice

The fact that others describe the balance sheet season as rather mixed didn’t bother us much. But then came Peloton. In just 24 minutes, the lockdown winner’s share price has plummeted 27 percent, whose sales aren’t really picking up and whose expenses seem to be outrunning it. It doesn’t matter whether he actually suspends the production of other models, as reported: That was it with the growth story, according to the market. And Netflix came after hours. Because the trees don’t grow into the sky anymore – or the number of subscribers. In any case, the S&P is under pressure and the debate about whether the bull market in equities is coming to an end may continue.

And what was going on in Germany? The beginning of the week was still nice because the Americans didn’t bother us. They did that even more on Tuesday, then it went on at a lower level and on Friday, well. The Ukraine conflict on the doorstep does not exactly put people in a good mood either. But the bond market also caused a stir in Germany this week: a positive return on ten-year Bunds? When had that ever happened? Correct: until May 2019 and for six hours on Wednesday. Maybe it’ll last a little longer next time.

FAZ Early Thinkers – The newsletter for Germany

Weekdays at 6:30 a.m


Leave a Comment