New ‘Axis of Autocracies‘ Emerges: Echoes of History and Global Power Shifts

September 5, 2024 – 10:00 AM

Beijing – A concerning alignment between China and Russia, coupled with the inclusion of North Korea and Iran in recent strategic exercises, is drawing stark parallels to the pre-World War II era and raising alarms about a potential reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape.

The Weight of History: Churchill’s Warning

Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously observed that Dictators “ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount,” adding ominously that “the tigers are getting hungry.” This analogy resonates today as leaders in Beijing and Moscow consolidate power and pursue increasingly assertive foreign policies. The current situation mirrors the conditions that enabled the rise of aggressive regimes in the 1930s – economic pressures, nationalist fervor, and the dismantling of democratic restraints.

A New Alliance Takes Shape

Chinese President Xi Jinping has actively fostered closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, highlighted by recent high-profile meetings and joint military exercises. The invitation extended to Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for the Shanghai Cooperation Institution summit and subsequent military parade underscored a deliberate signal of unity against what is perceived as a U.S.-dominated “rules-based” international order.This alliance isn’t merely reactive; it represents a proactive effort to establish a new world order with China at its center.

China’s Assertive Actions and Disregard for Norms

China’s actions demonstrate a clear disregard for established international norms. Aggressive policies toward neighbors, treaty violations regarding Hong Kong, influence operations aimed at foreign governments, exploitative economic practices through the Belt and Road Initiative, intellectual property theft, and the repression of political dissent paint a picture of a nation unwilling to adhere to conventional international conduct. According to a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations, Chinese espionage activity has increased by 60% in the last five years.

Russia’s Role and Strategic Dependence

While North Korea and Iran play supporting roles, the relationship between Russia and China is central to this emerging dynamic. Russia, increasingly isolated due to the war in Ukraine, finds itself strategically dependent on china. Putin openly acknowledges a “dear friend” relationship with Xi, citing historical support.Though, Russia likely views this reliance as temporary, born out of necessity related to the ongoing conflict.

Ukraine as a Distraction for taiwan?

A crucial aspect of this alignment is the potential for the Ukraine war to serve as a distraction, diverting Western attention and resources away from the Taiwan Strait. Beijing may calculate that a prolonged conflict in Ukraine will diminish the U.S. and its allies’ capacity to respond effectively to any action taken against Taiwan. This calculation is particularly relevant as China approaches its self-imposed deadline of 2027 to achieve military readiness for potential action against the island.

Historical Parallels: the Axis Powers

The relationship between Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan offers a historical lens through which to view the current dynamic between Russia and China. Like the Axis powers, the connection is rooted in a shared desire to dismantle the existing world order. While their alliance was marked by strategic interdependence rather than full cooperation – lacking a formal mutual defense pact – agreements like the 1936 Anti-Comintern Pact and the 1940 Tripartite Pact laid the groundwork for coordinated actions. A recent report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace indicates a similar lack of full military integration between China and Russia.

How does the Putin-Xi partnership specifically challenge the “balance of power” that Churchill deemed essential for global stability?

Xi and Putin’s Axis of Autocracies: A New Threat to Democracy as Predicted by Churchill in The Cipher Brief

The Resurgence of Great Power Competition & Authoritarian Alignment

The geopolitical landscape is undergoing a importent shift, marked by a growing alignment between authoritarian regimes. The strengthening partnership between China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin is increasingly viewed as a intentional challenge to the liberal international order, echoing concerns voiced decades ago by Winston Churchill. Churchill, in his analysis of global power dynamics, foresaw the potential for such alliances, warning of the dangers posed by concentrated autocratic power. Recent developments, notably within the BRICS economic bloc, underscore this evolving threat.

Churchill’s Foresight & The Cipher Brief

Churchill’s insights, frequently enough detailed in confidential communications – akin to what we now see in platforms like The Cipher Brief – highlighted the cyclical nature of great power competition. He understood that periods of relative peace could be disrupted by the rise of revisionist powers seeking to overturn the existing order. His analysis wasn’t simply about military might, but also about ideological alignment and the strategic use of influence.

* Key Churchillian Themes:

* The importance of maintaining a balance of power.

* the dangers of appeasement towards aggressive regimes.

* The necessity of a strong transatlantic alliance.

* Recognizing the inherent instability of autocratic systems.

The current Xi-Putin axis demonstrates a shared desire to diminish U.S. influence and promote a multipolar world – one where democratic norms are not necessarily paramount.

BRICS Expansion & The Shifting Global Order

The recent expansion of BRICS (brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to include Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia is a critical indicator of this shift.As reported on September 8, 2025, Xi Jinping explicitly positioned BRICS as “the front line of the Global South,” signaling its ambition to represent an alternative power center to the West. This isn’t merely an economic alliance; it’s a political statement.

Analyzing the BRICS Expansion: A Geopolitical Outlook

* Economic Implications: BRICS aims to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and western-dominated financial institutions, potentially creating a parallel economic system.The New Progress Bank (NDB),frequently enough touted as an alternative to the World Bank,is central to this strategy.

* Political Alignment: The inclusion of countries like iran and Saudi Arabia, with their distinct geopolitical agendas, highlights the diverse – and sometiems conflicting – interests within the bloc. However,a common thread unites them: a skepticism towards Western intervention and a desire for greater autonomy.

* Military Cooperation: While not explicitly a military alliance, increased military exercises and arms sales between Russia and China, and now potentially involving other BRICS members, raise concerns about a coordinated challenge to Western security interests.

The Putin-Xi Partnership: A Deep dive

The relationship between Putin and Xi has been steadily strengthening for years, driven by converging strategic interests.This partnership isn’t simply a marriage of convenience; it’s a long-term commitment to reshaping the global order.

Key Aspects of the putin-xi Relationship:

1. Energy Cooperation: Russia is a major energy supplier to China, providing a crucial source of revenue for the Russian economy, particularly in the face of Western sanctions.
2. Technological Collaboration: China is providing Russia with access to advanced technologies, helping to mitigate the impact of Western export controls.
3. Diplomatic Support: Both countries consistently support each other on the international stage, often blocking or vetoing resolutions critical of each other in the United Nations Security Council.
4. Military Exercises: Joint military exercises, such as “Vostok” and “Joint Sea,” demonstrate a growing level of interoperability and coordination between the Russian and Chinese militaries.

The Threat to democracy: Erosion of Norms & Values

The rise of this “axis of autocracies” poses a significant threat to democracy worldwide. It’s not necessarily about direct military aggression (though that remains a concern), but rather about the erosion of democratic norms and values.

Mechanisms of Democratic Erosion:

* Disinformation Campaigns: Both Russia and China are actively engaged in disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining trust in democratic institutions and processes.

* Support for Authoritarian Regimes: They provide political and economic support to authoritarian regimes around the world, bolstering their ability to suppress dissent and maintain power.

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