The Gaza Ceasefire is Just the First Act: How Trump’s Self-Interest Could Define the Future of the Conflict
As the genocide in Gaza enters its third year, a fragile hope has emerged – one fueled not by genuine peace efforts, but by Donald Trump’s pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize and a beachfront resort. The recent acceptance by Hamas of the initial terms of Trump’s 20-Point Plan, focused on hostage exchange and limited Israeli redeployment, is less a turning point and more a precarious pause. The history of similar “pauses” over the past two years serves as a stark reminder: temporary relief often precedes a resurgence of violence, potentially even more brutal than before.
The Illusion of a Plan: Trump’s Pragmatism and Palestinian Disregard
While presented as a path to resolution, Trump’s plan is fundamentally flawed. It explicitly disregards Palestinian self-determination, proposing a foreign-controlled administration imposed upon a population represented, in this instance, by Hamas – a body lacking a mandate to concede to such governance. The vague promise of a future Palestinian state feels less like a genuine aspiration and more like a rhetorical fig leaf. Ironically, this very demand – requiring Hamas’s acquiescence to foreign rule – may be the key to temporarily halting the violence. By accepting the initial terms, Hamas, with backing from key Arab states, gains leverage for “further negotiations,” even if the broader governance proposals are destined to fail.
The Nobel Prize as a Geopolitical Lever
Trump’s motivations are transparently self-serving. His obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t about achieving lasting peace; it’s about cultivating an image of diplomatic prowess, regardless of its validity. While his previous mediation attempts have yielded questionable results, the deep U.S. involvement in the Gaza conflict presents a unique opportunity. Trump believes stopping the genocide – or even appearing to do so – will secure him the coveted award and cement his legacy as a “peacemaker.”
A Rebuke to Netanyahu: Trump’s Shifting Alliances
Crucially, Trump’s plan isn’t solely pro-Israel; it actively undermines the maximalist ambitions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The plan explicitly prohibits Israel from occupying or governing Gaza, abandoning the prospect of ethnic cleansing. This represents a significant setback for Netanyahu and his far-right allies. Trump’s proposed governing board, headed by himself and including figures like Tony Blair, isn’t about Palestinian welfare; it’s about establishing a foothold in Gaza for post-presidency ventures, including, reportedly, a luxury resort for himself and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
This isn’t accidental. Trump could have simply focused on ending the fighting and installing a temporary Arab administration. Instead, the inclusion of a long-term governance plan was a deliberate move, a calculated rebuke of Netanyahu following the bombing of Qatar – an action Trump publicly condemned, even forcing Netanyahu into a scripted apology broadcast to the media. The images of a visibly chastened Netanyahu reading the apology at Trump’s direction spoke volumes about the power dynamics at play.
The Fragility of Progress: Netanyahu’s Potential for Sabotage
While Trump possesses the power to compel Netanyahu to end the genocide, the critical question remains: will he recognize and counter Netanyahu’s attempts to undermine any agreement? Early signs are not encouraging. Despite Hamas’s willingness to release all remaining hostages and relinquish any administrative role in post-genocide Gaza, Trump initially failed to consistently enforce a ceasefire, allowing Israeli attacks to resume even in areas where hostages were believed to be held. This inconsistency, coupled with a shifting timeline for Israeli withdrawal – defined vaguely as “progress on the ground” – raises serious concerns. The Council on Foreign Relations provides ongoing analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlighting the complexities of defining and measuring such progress.
Netanyahu, sensing an opportunity, is likely to exploit these ambiguities. He’s unlikely to actively oppose the initial withdrawal, recognizing Trump’s desire for a quick win. However, he will almost certainly attempt to thwart further withdrawals and create a pretext for resuming the violence, betting that Trump will eventually prioritize the appearance of success – freeing the hostages – over enforcing a lasting peace. Trump’s apparent misunderstanding of Netanyahu’s motivations – believing the genocide wasn’t the ultimate goal, but merely a byproduct of the hostage situation – further exacerbates this risk.
The Role of Regional Powers and the West Bank Shadow
The Gulf states, while publicly supporting the Trump plan, are primarily interested in restoring a semblance of stability that allows business to proceed uninterrupted. Their rhetoric of concern for the Palestinians often masks a lack of genuine commitment to achieving a just and lasting solution. This dynamic is particularly concerning given the plan’s complete silence on the West Bank, where Netanyahu is almost certain to escalate tensions if forced to concede in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s far-right allies, while unwilling to trigger a government collapse over the Gaza truce, will undoubtedly resist any concessions. They prioritize maintaining control over the West Bank and will likely exploit any opportunity to undermine the ceasefire.
A Desperate Gamble: Hamas’s Calculated Risk
Hamas, facing a catastrophic situation in Gaza, is taking a calculated risk by sacrificing its remaining leverage – the hostages. They recognize that the hostages have proven ineffective as a deterrent to Israeli violence and that their value is diminishing with each passing day. The people of Gaza, understandably, are overjoyed at the prospect of an end to the slaughter, but the underlying injustice of their situation will likely temper that joy, even if the ceasefire holds. The hope now rests on growing global revulsion at the genocide and the potential for international pressure to prevent a resumption of hostilities.
Ultimately, the fate of Gaza – and potentially the entire region – hinges on Trump’s willingness to remain engaged and to hold Netanyahu accountable. However, given his notoriously short attention span and shifting priorities, this is far from guaranteed. The initial hostage release offers a brief respite, a chance for the people of Gaza to catch their breath. But it is not yet time to celebrate the end of the genocide. The coming months will determine whether this fragile ceasefire evolves into a genuine path to peace, or merely another temporary pause before the next wave of violence.
What do you believe will be the biggest obstacle to a lasting peace in Gaza? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
