It seems difficult to believe in a coincidence: Both German-Russian gas pipelines through the Baltic Sea could have ruptured within a day. The control center noticed a drop in pressure in both tubes of the “Nord Stream 1” pipeline, the pipeline operator said on Tuesday night. The capacity of the pipeline had unexpectedly dropped to zero.
The German Ministry of Economics and the Federal Network Agency then said that they were in contact with each other and with the authorities concerned in order to clarify the matter. “We currently do not know the causes of the pressure drop,” it said about the problems with “Nord Stream 1”. But that may have changed by now. On Tuesday morning, the Swedish authorities issued a warning about two leaks in Swedish and Danish waters – each affecting the “Nord Stream 1” pipeline. The Danish shipping authority also warned of a leak in the pipeline north-east of the island of Bornholm.
The situation around “Nord Stream 2” developed very similarly on Monday. During the night on Monday, the operator had informed all the naval authorities in the Baltic Sea countries about pressure problems in one of the tubes. In the course of the day, the probable cause of the pressure drop was found: a gas leak had been observed south-east of the island of Bornholm, according to a note from the responsible Danish authority. The leak is said to be dangerous to navigation and navigating within five nautical miles of said position is prohibited.
search for causes
The causes behind the leaks are now to be brought to light by investigations – which are made more difficult due to the situation on the seabed. As the German “Tagesspiegel” reported, the German authorities should not rule out the possibility of an attack – or would even consider it likely. “Our imagination no longer produces a scenario that is not a targeted attack.” Everything speaks “against coincidence,” the newspaper quoted a person involved in the investigation as saying.
However, who could be behind such an act of sabotage seems to be the subject of conjecture at the moment. According to the “Tagesspiegel”, both pro-Ukrainian forces and a Russian operation could be responsible. For the Ukrainian side, it could be about eliminating the Russian-German Baltic Sea pipelines as a means of exerting pressure on the West. At the same time, the “Yamal” connection running through Poland and the Ukrainian pipeline network would become even more important. A Russian “false flag operation”, on the other hand, could aim to stir up additional uncertainty in the West.
Of course, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs only said briefly on Tuesday: “We do not participate in speculation.” The Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy called for a “higher degree of vigilance in the electricity and gas sector”.
No short-term consequences for gas supply
The fact is: Even before the pressure problems, gas was flowing from Russia towards Germany neither through “Nord Stream 1” nor through “Nord Stream 2”. “Nord Stream 2” was never put into operation as a result of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. With “Nord Stream 1”, the Russian gas company Gazprom had completely stopped the previously reduced deliveries at the beginning of September – with reference to an oil spill in a compressor station. The EU states only see this as a pretext.
The immediate consequences of the leaks for the European gas supply should therefore be limited for the time being. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Network Agency also said that the storage levels would continue to increase “continuously”.
Tens of millions of cubic meters of gas in pipelines
Another question is what dangers the leaks pose to shipping and the climate. Because even if no gas flows through the pipelines, they were still filled with it. Natural gas consists mainly of methane. This is highly flammable. Should there be an explosion, this could pose a danger to ships in the vicinity – hence the warnings now issued by the Danish and Swedish authorities.
At the same time, methane is also a greenhouse gas that has a much stronger effect in the atmosphere than CO2, for example. Should the two pipelines actually run empty in the coming days, tens of millions of cubic meters of gas would escape. “Nord Stream 2” alone was previously filled with 177 million cubic meters of gas. This corresponds to a little more than two percent of the annual gas consumption in Austria.
“Nord Stream 2” spokesman Ulrich Lissek has already announced that the pipeline has run dry. At the same time, the pipeline operator described its own options for investigating the cause as limited. The spokesman said there were hardly any staff left and funds were frozen due to the sanctions. To the best of Lissek’s knowledge, there are no Nord Stream 2 AG personnel in Lubmin, the place where the pipeline lands in Germany. You can’t place any orders either, because you can’t pay for them, and you have to see where you can get information from, it said.