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The triumph of Alberto and of Cristina Fernandez, in the elections of Sunday already has consequences. Brazil, the main trading partner of Argentina, is determined to review its relations and give, if necessary, a slam to Mercosur (South American Common Market). Simultaneously, the member countries of the Lima Group, the most combative against the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro, anxiously await the official position of the elected president. Until now, Alberto Fernández has refused to qualify the Maduro regime as dictatorship and his elected vice president is and was one of the best allies of Caracas.
Bolsonaro refused to congratulate "the Fernandez". The president of Brazil did not moderate or use half measures to say what he thinks: "I don't have a crystal ball but I think Argentina chose badly." The president-elect of Argentina was, in full campaign, to visit Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva and there are few occasions, including election night, when he demanded his freedom and treated him as if he were a political prisoner.
On an official visit to the Arab Emirates, Bolsonaro He spoke bluntly: «I do not intend to congratulate him (Fernandez). Now, we are not going to get angry. We will wait to see what your real position in politics is ». Confident that once in power he discovers another reality, he added: "When he assumes he will analyze what is happening and we will see what line he will take."
Know the "invoice"
In this context and before the results of the Argentine elections were known, Bolsonaro commissioned a report from his Government to know the "bill" that Brazil would have to pay if he left Mercosur. He also asked to study the possibilities that he would have, in alliance with other partners, to expel Argentina from the block comprising Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil. Asked about this possibility, he added, "I do not say that we are going to leave Mercosur but we can join Paraguay and see what happens in Uruguay" to face up if the ballot wins Lacalle Pou. That said, he warned, "if Argentina affects any clause of the agreement, if it hurts us, we can remove it" although "we hope that none of this is necessary."
The unfriendly position of Fernández to the Mercosur European Union agreement and the meeting of the Kirchnerist bases to any free trade agreement threatens to generate tensions in the next Government. But also, in the region and especially in politics to continue with the case of Venezuela. The Government of Tabaré Vázquez bet with Andrés Manuel López Obrador to the Contact Group, a road that has left the biggest crisis in the history of Venezuela in neutral and that splashes to neighboring countries with the exodus of refugees (around four million). Virtually the rest of the region, with the exceptions of Nicaragua and the countries mentioned, chose to join the Lima Group.
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