A significant weakening of the ruble after the removal of restrictions on the sale of currencies (except for the dollar and the euro) should not be expected. This was stated by Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Global Research Department at Otkritie Investments. He is quoted “Prime” on Friday, May 20th.
According to him, the main reason for the two-month strengthening of the ruble is the excess supply of foreign currency over demand. The easing of restrictions could change the situation. This will not happen, since the dollar and the euro remain the most demanded, the restrictions on trade of which are still in place. The share of sales of other currencies and their impact on the market are limited. Demand could spur an increase in imports, but so far this has not happened, the expert emphasizes.
“Therefore, a significant weakening of the ruble should not be expected – fluctuations, if they occur, are insignificant. They will be serious only if the rate of mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings is reduced, which will reduce the inflow of foreign currency to the Moscow Exchange. This can happen both in a directive and natural way, for example, due to a reduction in the physical volume of oil and gas sales, which bring the bulk of the revenue to domestic companies, or due to a decrease in their prices, ”Syrovatkin believes.
With a decrease in export earnings by 20-30%, the indicator may well move into the range of 83-100 rubles per dollar, the analyst concluded.