Dr. Piti Disayatat, Assistant Governor Monetary Policy Group The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has revealed that the Bank of Thailand will review the GDP growth forecast for the year 65 at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on March 30, 65. It was previously expected to grow by 3.4% due to the global economic slowdown caused by the impact of the Russo-Ukraine war. causing oil prices to rise Including the number of tourists decreased from the expected arrival of 5.6 million people.
In addition, rising oil prices are expected to push inflation above the full-year target, which the Bank of Thailand forecasts at 3%, while various economic research bureaus They all reduced their GDP targets and assessed the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the country’s economic recovery in the same direction.
KKP Research by Kiatnakin Phat estimates that the effects of the Thai economic war have been severely impacted by higher oil prices due to higher dependence on oil consumption than other countries, as well as the COVID-19 outbreak. Thailand has been severely affected as well. reflecting the image of the Thai economy being very fragile
This year, KKP Research revised its GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.9% and revised its inflation forecast from 2.3% to 4.2% due to higher production and energy costs. Oil prices are projected to hit an average high of $130 a barrel in the second quarter, and a full-year average of $110 a barrel in the second quarter of the year. Inflation is expected to hit a peak of 5.5%, lowering people’s purchasing power. Exports slowed down in line with the global economic slowdown.
For higher oil prices, this is only the first step. There is also a chance that the price of other products will be higher The food price will inevitably increase according to the price of energy. Although most of the essential goods are price controlled by Department of Internal Trade But food and beverage prices in general will continue to rise around 6%, and some products may see a steep increase, such as vegetables and fruits up 14%, rice 9% and meat 7% due to the added cost of transportation.