The blue dollar jumped $27 at the opening of the wheel and analysts explain why

2023-09-27 18:17:00

The price of the informal currency opened this Wednesday with a strong rise of $27 yeIt climbed to $785 for sale and $775 for the purchase. Towards noon in Buenos Aires it is already falling and is at $778 and $773 at both ends.

The view of market analysts is conclusive: with the underlying elections, and less than a month away from a climate full of uncertainty about the result, You will have to be prepared to have variations of this type. They also add other condiments, like a market flooded with pesos – after the official measures – Pesos that cannot go to the purchase of the savings dollar or MEP, thereby putting pressure on the parallel price.

At the time of the ban, Massa announced a bonus of $47,000 for informal workers in October and November

For him Lic Gastón Lentini, the rise of blue shows a market that is beginning to react to two variables that have been seen for a long time. The first is the government’s intervention in the MEP market that allows it to have it at values ​​of $690 to $700 and fluctuate in those prices. On the other hand, the arrival of a large amount of pesos, a product of the government’s new measures for retirees, monotributistas and other sectors to improve consumption.

“The blue dollar had exceeded $800 after the PASO and calmed down. Now, We have at least 10% per month, which is a natural increase as a result of inflation. But also, the market realized that this government, with all the measures launched last week, is going to issue a lot of pesos, and since those pesos cannot go to buy MEPin many cases they can be transformed into cash and that cash it becomes a blue dollar, because there is no other way for the common denominator of people to protect money,” he said.

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Argentina would not comply with the fiscal pact with the IMF

For his part, the market analyst Andres Reschini of F2 Solutions, In his private report he stated that: “The approach to a first round of elections full of uncertainty, the bleeding of BCRA reserves to calm financial FX and one Demand for growing dollarization makes the market more restless which is also pressured by a scenario of global dollar strength.”

Far from leaving volatility aside, October will be a month of jumps in prices

For the economist Elena Alonso of the Grupo Brodathere is no doubt that This month that begins, with the seasoning of the elections, will maintain volatility in the markets.

From now until the elections we are going to experience scenarios of this typewhere the Government tries to contain the dollar as soon as there are market interventions, the bond market,” he indicated.

And he added that “today the financial dollars have remained the same, they have not risen, and the blue, which is the dollar that is a little more in demand, is having more growth, which is what always happens when there are expectations, right? I think that the announcement of the dead cow dollar, the oil dollar, which allows 25% of currencies to be settled in cash with settlement, also shows that there is a strong need for dollars, which although it is known, I believe that the measures They are not enough and the market reads that, reads the insufficiency of the measures at this time, where the exchange rate between now and the end of the year is expected to have several jumps,” said the market strategist.

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Factors from here, and from there too

For her part, the economist Natalia Motyl de NM Consultant He explained to PERFIL that the response to this jump is explained, in part, by local issues, but also by things from abroad.

“From the local side it is found the fact that we are very close to the elections and the market is trying to hedge against the eventual results by accelerating portfolio dollarization,” he said. And he added that “having kept the interest rate stable caused greater demand for dollars.”

Likewise, he added to theThe latest liquidity injection measures for electoral purposes while they aggravate the crisis of confidence. “The agents incorporated future information that these measures were going to aggravate the fiscal problem into today’s decisions, so they act based on it by demanding more dollars,” he said.

And finally he added that, “from the external side, las Tensions between China and Taiwan affect emerging markets and new increases in the FED interest rate also affect local currencies,” he noted while warning: “We are entering a complicated second semester.”

What happens to financial dollars

For its part, Financial dollars also recorded an increase but to a lesser extent. While the stock market dollar or MEP advanced to $698.12, the Cash with Settlement was closer to the blue, at levels of $780.45, but always considering that this depends on the title with which the transaction is carried out.

At noon in the city the MEP is $696.20 and the CCL is $772.94.

Meanwhile, the value of the official dollar remains at $367, while the wholesale dollar, which governs foreign trade operations, stands at $350. In turn, the Banco Nación quote that is applied for a series of contracts is $365.50.

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With this new scheme, the Savings dollar is worth $642.29, as is the “Tourist” dollar (which applies to expenses less than US$300 per month). The “Qatar” (for expenses over US$300) is worth $660.64.

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