This week, we bring you two articles that shed light on two themes from the premiere program of HGGSP (history, geography, geopolitics, political science): the emergence of democracy in England and international demographic dynamics. A selection by Benjamin Daubeuf, history-geography teacher at Val-de-Seine high school in Grand-Quevilly.
This week, we bring you two articles that take stock of recent research in history and geography and shed light on two themes from the premiere program of HGGSP.
An exam paper that starts with a catchphrase drawn from research news is a considerable plus in the eyes of the correctors, so do not hesitate to make sheets for all the themes studied this year.
In this first article, the English journalist Victoria Masson, of the site The History Magazine, seeks to understand the origins of the English Revolution of 1642. This reflection is part of theme 1 in the first – “Understanding a political regime: democracy” – in particular in the introduction, on the emergence of this political system in England from XVIIe century.
Victoria Masson recalls that the King of England was in a complex situation at that time:
Charles Iis finds itself virtually bankrupt, trapped in shameless corruption and nepotism. He is anything but an infallible leader, a fact which is plain to Parliament and the people of England alike.”
Unable to obtain the support he expected, he decided to dissolve, in March 1629, a Parliament which at the time only had an advisory role in matters of finance. From this date, he therefore reigns alone, but his fiscal and religious policy makes him very unpopular in all strata of society.
Following the humiliating defeat of the Scots in 1640, he was finally forced to reconvene Parliament. Feeling then in a position of strength, parliamentarians seek to tip the balance of power. As Victoria Masson writes,
new parliamentarians feel invested with a mission. They now embody a power other than that of the sovereign. The two sides of the future English Civil War are already formed. From then on, it is an inexorable spiral towards confrontation.”
In 1642, Charles Iis triggered a civil war which ended for him in 1649 when he was beheaded. A republic, called the Commonwealth of England, was then established, with Oliver Cromwell at its head. The factors that led to this first democratic revolution in Europe were numerous, financial, political and religious.
This long article, taken from the Japanese review Nikkei Asia, analyzes the current demographic evolution and wonders about its consequences. From the introduction, the tone is set:
For two hundred years, sustained population growth has consumed natural resources, devastated the environment and caused wars. Humanity is on the verge of exchanging one demographic bomb for another. Politicians and scientists are opening their eyes to a new reality: the world is on the verge of decline, even extinction. […] By 2050, 151 of the 195 countries in the world will be in a situation of population decline.”
These reflections can shed some interesting light on the introduction of theme 2 in the first session: “Analyze the dynamics of international powers”.
Sharp demographic decline in Asia
It is the Asian countries which today seem to be the most affected by this demographic decline, and China, a traditional demographic power, is no exception to this trend. As the journalists of the Japanese magazine point out:
The best example of this demographic decline remains China. The University of Washington predicts the downturn will begin next year, with the population falling to 730 million by 2100 from 1.41 billion today.
One of the main causes of this decline would be the increase in the number of female graduates in Asia, which has a direct impact on fertility rates.
Economic challenge
The interest of the article is to show that governments must now take this demographic decline into account in their growth policies. Indeed, the challenges to be met are numerous: financing pensions, labor shortages, etc. The IMF now uses an expression to characterize this economic growth in a context of demographic decline: “shrinkonomics” (“the economy in a declining population”).
In its recent strategy report, the IMF underlines that it is certainly thanks to the digital transition that countries like Japan will be able to cope with the aging of their population. Another solution, to cope with this demographic decline, is to resort to foreign labour. Finally, the last solution presented by this article: increasing labor productivity.
Under these conditions, is demography still an objective lever of power? Quoted in the article of Nikkei Asia, the demographer Paul Morland wrote about it in a book published in 2019:
Demography is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition of power. Without its abundant population, China could not have become a great power after the rise of its administration and industry.
Asked by Nikkei Asia, Yi Fuxian, director of research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, believes that the demographic constraints at work in China will harm its economy:
What awaits China is an aging-induced recession. Without a boost in the birth rate, the economic growth rate will not pick up and the country will never overtake the United States in terms of START.”