The Government Prepares for Extreme Scenarios Facing Economic Pressure

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia –

Secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy, Susiwijono, stated that the government had prepared various projections and extreme scenarios that might occur the economy Indonesia due to pandemic pressure corona virus or covid-19. These various scenarios are also complemented by various policy options that must be taken.

“Including the simulation if there are options one, two, three, if there is an extreme option, the government is always ready to anticipate any dynamics that occur,” said Susi, her nickname, during a virtual press conference on Wednesday (5/8).

Even so, Susi cannot share what new scenarios and policy options the government has made. Because, he said this scenario must be adjusted again with the latest economic data.

One of them is the realization of Indonesia’s economic growth which contracted 5.32 percent in the second quarter of 2020. While quarterly, the national economy contracted 4.19 percent in the same period.

“To be honest with the minus 5.32 percent figure, we are adjusting some macroeconomic and sectoral indicators related to the results of the second quarter, because we automatically carry out more detailed discussions,” he said.

However, Susi ensured that the government would continue to strive so that Indonesia’s economic growth could be maintained going forward. This is because President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) asked Indonesia not to enter into a recession in the third quarter of 2020.

Recession is a condition where a country’s economic growth is negative in two consecutive quarters. In the second quarter, Indonesia has grown negatively, if the third quarter is also negative, then a recession will occur.

[Gambas:Video CNN]

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“What is clear is the direction of the President, we were asked on a target basis to prevent a recession. This means that as much as possible in the third quarter, it is not minus growth or negative,” he said.

Secretary of the Covid-19 Handling Committee and National Economic Recovery (PEN) Raden Pardede added that the committee also strives to maintain Indonesia’s economic growth to remain positive until the end of the year.

“We have to prevent a recession, negative growthThis means that if you can get 0.1 percent or even zero percent economic growth it must be obtained. If full year zero percent, it’s already better than other countries, “said Raden at the same opportunity.

Previously, the Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto and Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati compactly predicted that the country’s economy would grow zero percent by 2020. However, this happened because economic growth in the second quarter was estimated to be minus 4.3 percent.

Unfortunately, the realization of economic growth in the second quarter actually fell deeper reaching minus 5.32 percent. This means that the opportunities for lower 2020 economic growth are open.

Airlangga itself had predicted the economy would be minus 1 percent in the third quarter of 2020, so that Indonesia has the opportunity to enter the recession’s abyss in that period.

(uli / agt)

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