(Ecofin Agency) – In its forecast economic budget for 2022, the Moroccan High Commission for Planning unveiled its new growth estimate for the year 2021. The assumptions considered by the institution make it possible to predict a significant rebound after the recession of 6 .3% in 2020.
Moroccan economic growth in 2021 is expected to rebound to 7.2%, after a contraction of 6.3% in 2020. This was indicated by the Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP) in a new report published on 18 January, and unveiling its new estimates for the past year as well as its forecasts for the coming year.
This estimated increase in growth is consistent with a general improvement in certain macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the HCP mentions in its report a drop in the budget deficit to 6.5% against 7.6% in 2020, while the overall debt ratio, in decline, would have reached 90.3% last year, against 92.5% a year earlier.
According to the institution, the new estimates of Morocco’s economic growth are motivated by the good performance of the agricultural sector. ” The good spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall allowed cereal production to reach a record level of 103.2 MQx, up 221% compared to the previous season, as well as an increase in other non-cereal crops, particularly citrus fruits ( +29%) and the olive tree (+14%) under the positive effect of the relatively mild temperature and the rains of April and May “, emphasizes the HCP. These improvements had the effect of strengthening growth in the primary sector, with an estimate of 17.9% last year against a decline of 6.9% in 2020.
In addition, the improvement in the country’s epidemiological situation over the past year has had the effect of reviving activities in high value-added sectors such as the automobile and textiles, thanks to a firming up of external demand and interior.
« Strong foreign demand from the European Union for ready-made garments has benefited textile and leather activities, posting a strengthening of nearly 13.5% in 2021, after registering a drastic drop of 10.6% during the pandemic in 2020 The recovery of the automotive sector, thanks to external demand for electronic components and electrical wires and cables, would have benefited the mechanical, metallurgical and electrical industries, posting positive growth of around 8.6% in 2021 “, says the report.
Despite this recovery, inflation is estimated to have risen sharply. According to the HCP, its level is estimated at 1.8% in 2021, and should be maintained in 2022. Despite a gradual recovery in Moroccan exports (+9.5%), the institution is counting on a widening of the trade deficit at 16.6% of GDP in 2021 against 14.6% the previous year, following the same trend as financing needs which would have increased to -2.5% of GDP in 2021 against -1.8%, ‘last year.
« This situation reflects both the fragility of the external trade situation as well as the shortfall in national savings, which would have reached 28.7% of GDP against a gross investment rate of 31.3% of GDP in 2021. “, adds the HCP.
Note that these prospects are on the rise compared to those of the IMF, which estimates Morocco’s 2021 growth at 5.7%. For 2022, on the other hand, the two institutions forecast downward growth, to 2.9% according to the HCP and 3.1% according to the IMF.
Moutiou Adjibi Nourou
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