The Italian Government had been putting on the bandage for many days before the injury. Day after day he stressed that what happened in the regional elections of Emilia Romagna would have no effect in Rome, that nothing would make the Executive fall. It seemed rather a form of prevention to what some polls predicted, which threw a victory of the right, ready to shake the weak foundations of the coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5E). But this Sunday the left won eight points and found a brighter victory than expected. For the first time they were able to bend Salvini at the polls. And that gives the Executive an important oxygen ball.
Although we would have to differentiate. Because the winner of the night was the PD, while the M5E obtained in Emilia Romagna a 3.5% that puts him in the prelude to an announced death. A report by the Cattaneo Institute reveals that in some cities more than 70% ‘grillinos’ voters passed over to the Social Democrats. It is explained as a useful vote, given the fear of Salvini’s arrival in a region of long progressive tradition. But it reveals a trend that seems to be here to stay. In a context of high ideological polarization, that proclamation of not belonging to the left or right has left the M5E out of play. Its most right-wing voters have already moved to the League and now the most leftists have gone to the PD.
Therefore, it is the Democratic Party that is reinforced in the Government. His undersecretary Andrea Orlando expressed it very clearly yesterday: “The numbers of the Five Stars in Parliament no longer count the same. Now we are the relative majority party with exponential growth. ” Actually, the M5E obtained 33% in the last elections, by 17% of the PD. But, as happened to the Five Stars in their alliance with the League, they run the risk of being at the expense of a political force that they fold into seats.
“Most likely, the PD is now asking for more power and maybe a new distribution of ministers,” predicts Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at Luiss University. Even so, the respite for the Government should translate into greater cohesion between the two parties, which until now has not existed. Castellani affirms that “in the long term, the most logical thing is that a part of the M5E is de facto absorbed by the PD, so that we would face a more centrist government.” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who was appointed by the M5E, already has a more fluid relationship with the leader of the PD, Nicola Zingaretti, than with the deputies ‘grillinos’. “I talk to Conte continuously and I know that he is working to open phase two of the Government, a more reformist stage,” Zingaretti said yesterday.
Conte picked up his words and took the opportunity to make firewood from the fallen tree. “There are those who have tried to make these elections an improper election date, a referendum for or against the national government. I mean Salvini, who comes out as the big loser of this competition, ”he said. Meanwhile, the former minister of
Interior did not shy away from melee and said he would “do everything” again what he did in the campaign, including the call to the home of a Tunisian citizen to ask if he was a drug salesman.
It is difficult to predict whether excessive tone outflows have ended up punishing Salvini or have weighed more fear of what he represents, highlighted by the youthful movement of sardines. But the truth is that his personalist strategy to end the Government has not only been a failure, but has given him an extra life on the left that he did not have. The League has obtained a much greater result than the last elections in Emilia Romagna, but loses with respect to the European. And, in addition, it yields positions compared to the European ones in Calabria, where it was also voted. This is Salvini’s second bulge mistake, since last summer he shot himself in the foot and lost the Government.