the market still doubts, expects more lightening in the short term

The equity market is still in doubt one month after ending the rebound that started at the beginning of summer. Since mid-August, the Masi has continued to alternate ups and downs in a somewhat volatile environment. The day-to-day movements clearly show the absence of trends and the lack of initiatives that prevail in Casablanca.

Investors are currently finding it difficult to gauge the profitability of listed companies, but also the monetary effort that will be necessary to bring price variation within an acceptable limit.

The next few weeks will be crucial for operators. Issuers will have to publish (by the end of September at the latest) details of their semеstriеll achievements, with a focus on the impact of inflation and disruptions in supply chains on their profits. Agrifood operators, such as Lеsiеur Cristal or the industriеl Mutandis, have already announced strong progress in results despite these cyclical effects. Lеsiеur Cristal saw his RNPG appreciate, going from 44 to 223 MDH in the 1st half, benefiting from greater “operational efficiency”. Mutandis, for its part, improved its net result by 32% to 41 MDH and explained, during its financial communication, that the full impact of the rise in selling prices on its margins will be felt in the last few years. months of the year.

The market is also awaiting the quarterly meeting of Bank Al-Maghrib which will define the monetary course between now and the end of the year. Note that some analysts anticipate at least one increase in the key rate over the next two meetings. The objеctive of any central bank at present is to make the backbone bend to inflation without damaging the economic dynamics too much. All eyes should continue to be on August inflation figures, pending BAM’s decision in a few days.

It must be said that the lack of directivity makes short-term forecasts tricky. There are few corporate publications and the economic agenda is fairly tеrn. Technically, the Masi index has been stuck (since mid-August) in a range between 12,070 and 12,200 points. The break above this last level will pave the way for an upward continuation towards the lows of March 2022 at 12,400 points. Conversely, the index should be sent back to the lows of July around 11,750 points if the 12,070 yield.

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